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Regardless of the buzz about a breakthrough in solving the assassination attempt against People's Alliance for Democracy co-leader in April, it might be hasty to anticipate an unmasking of the culprits.

Although police have managed to gather evidence leading to minions, this is a far cry from naming the masterminds.

If the track record of Thai police work is any indication, then the case may be partially solved, but with so many unanswered questions. Masterminds have often eluded the police dragnet in cases seen as political conspiracy, executed by top figures in the bureaucracy.

In other words, when the crime has the telltale signs of involving Big Brother, investigators are quick to leak a myriad of who-done-it scenarios, round up some suspects and leave the case unsolved.

In August 2006, the car bomb incident threatened the life of then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Inspite of all state mechanisms at his disposal, Thaksin failed to get the police to identify who had put out a contract on his life.

Police traced the car to the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc), which ironically was under Thaksin's direct control. Some low-ranking soldiers were put on trial, though the masterminds remained unidentified.

After the 2006 coup, Thaksin openly blamed the military establishment, particularly the coup leaders, for conspiring to kill him. He has yet to provide evidence to back up this theory. The mystery has deepened since many of whom Thaksin cast suspicion, are seen as his supporters or allies.

In Thaksin's view, the men in green might be after his life even though many suspect the involvement of the yellow-shirt camp, which he surprisingly omitted to factor in.

It is a curious coincidence that his arch-rival Sondhi too has suspected the men in green for the attempt on his life and neglected to mention the red shirts.

Both assassination attempts against Thaksin and Sondhi have had the hallmarks of being executed by powerful officials. In Thaksin's case, the bomb was assembled inside an Isoc car. In the Sondhi case, the shooting was typical of a military-trained operation and executed during the emergency rule without any detection.

The question remains: Who are the culprits in such daring operations?

Police may have hunches about the conspiracy behind the Thaksin case, but their investigative report went as far as evidence led them - to the minions. Sondhi may have his own suspicions on who wanted his life, but investigators are pursuing leads contrary to his view.

Even though Sondhi has not named any names, the yellow-shirt camp has hinted at linkage to the top brass like Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan and Army chief General Anupong Paochinda.

The police breakthrough to name two suspects in the Sondhi case - Pol Corporal Worrawuth Mungsanti, a policeman of the Narcotics Suppression Bureau, and Master Sergeant Panya Srihaera, a non-commissioned officer of the Special Warfare Command - has indicated not the military establishment but red-leaning men in uniform.

The police investigation has taken a strange turn toward links to Thaksin via a proxy, rather than incriminating the Prawit-Anupong military clique.

Worrawuth, who was recently discharged frome service due to his absence from duty, is seen as a pro-red camp follower and close to Thawee Sodsong, director-general of the Department of Special Investigation who once served as Thaksin's henchman.

Panya is a subordinate of Colonel Sunai Praphuchanay, a red-beret officer presently assigned to the South. Both Panya and Sunai used to serve under ex-Army chief General Chettha Thanajaro, who is a Thaksin ally and an adviser to the Pheu Thai Party.

With this twist in the case, the military leaders suddenly appear to cooperate with the investigation. Is this a ploy to encourage speculation on who-done-it while diverting attention from the real culprits?