A new, nasty phase of the political game

The relative calm of Thai politics - which has given the public a much-needed reprieve since the tumultuous events of Songkran - suddenly looks in danger of being shattered. July seems to be the month when the ghosts of old are converging. Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya is under immense pressure because of his role in last year's Suvarnabhumi Airport seizure by the People's Alliance for Democracy. Thaksin Shinawatra's supporters are rekindling their campaign to make him a free man. Police have found big leads in the Sondhi Limthongkul assassination-attempt case. And the trial over Thaksin's frozen assets has begun.

Each of these issues is explosive on its own. That they are all coming to a head at almost the same time looks anything but coincidental - at least in the eyes of conspiracy theorists.

The Kasit issue, a big scar on the face of the People's Alliance for Democracy, has been linked with the sudden breakthrough in the Sondhi case, which is the PAD's rallying cry. Just when the PAD appeared to be on the ropes, an issue that paints its enemies in an even worse light has sprung up at the bell.

It seems that major political games are being played at various levels, and each one is in response to another.

Followers of Thai politics have always been taught not to take anything at face value, but now they will have to think twice as hard about this. For example, a Democrat-led government attempting to block a public petition seeking a royal pardon for Thaksin would have had one, easy meaning six months ago. But now we don't know what to believe. After all, the government's move against the petition campaign is taking place against a backdrop of rumours about a serious split within the Democrat Party.

It's no longer as clear-cut as the yellow-red divide of last year. Idealism, if it ever played a big part in the Thai political conflict, has given way to something more primal - the raw urge to grab power, no matter what. And if we are seeing the beginning of a dramatic realignment - something like a previously unthinkable alliance between Thaksin and some of his old enemies - there is no cause for celebration.

At the centre of the various rumours is one Suthep Thaugsuban. Is the Democrat power broker still on good terms with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva? Has he really established some solid connections with Thaksin? Is he collaborating with some people in the military in a conspiracy to neutralise the PAD? Why was he so quick to come out to moot his theory that the attempt on Sondhi's life was a personal act, and that large-scale military involvement in the plot was impossible? Is Suthep responsible for the political storm that is battering Foreign Minister Kasit?

These rumours are characteristic of the enigmatic relationship between Thaksin and some of his key enemies. When pro-Thaksin governments were besieged politically last year and there seemed to be a subsequent power vacuum, it was Army chief Anupong Paochinda who was the main focus of jaw-dropping gossip. Now, Suthep has come to share the attention. To some of Thaksin's arch-enemies, the duo have become a pair that can never be trusted.

Again, we can regard yesterday's Election Commission ruling against Suthep and 12 other Democrats concerning their stock possession as "another coincidence", or we can read a little more into it. The EC charges, if upheld by the Constitution Court, can disqualify the 13 MPs from the House of Representatives; therefore the charges are another bombshell issue in the making.

Through all this, Thaksin has made a couple of more phone-ins and almost triggered a diplomatic showdown by claiming that he had briefly been in Malaysia, during which time the Malaysian police and officials gave him protection, aside from "love and care".

The issue is still alive, although Malaysia's top police officer has absolutely denied Thaksin's claims.

Kasit, on the sidelines of the 15th Non-Aligned Movement meeting being held in Egypt, has asked Malaysia and Montenegro to verify recent reports about Thaksin's presence in their countries. The foreign minister also urged the two countries to take into account their relations with Thailand in their dealings, if any, with the fugitive ex-leader.

As things stand, only a PAD-Thaksin marriage remains unimaginable. Other scenarios, from mildly scary to outright obscene, now look either possible or plausible. And not surprisingly, whispering has begun about a new coup which, depending on future developments, might soon come rumbling into town.

The situation may not be as fragile as it once was, but it's very clear that, amid all the talk about reconciliation, nobody is ready to concede anything.

It's also clear that every issue that arises is not meant to challenge our collective conscience or values so that we can learn and move on as a stronger nation. The issues that are competing to rear their ugly heads are simply part of a game, and the game has only one ultimate goal - to grab power by destroying, not constructing.