Reasons why Kasit will be able to stay on

First, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has nobody else in the ruling Democrat Party who is as experienced in international affairs as Kasit.

There are many Democrats who want Kasit removed. In fact, rumours of the military pushing him to step down also came from inside the party. However, a party source said Abhisit had enough confidence in Kasit and saw no reason to fire him.

Abhisit has said that Kasit could continue in his job as foreign minister because the police charges did not legally affect his ministerial post in accordance with the constitution.

Second, it is not the right time to replace Kasit, especially since Thailand, as chairman of the grouping, will be hosting the Asean Ministerial Meeting next week in Phuket. The government needs somebody who is familiar with the job to conduct the meeting, which will be attended by several high-profile figures such as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It would be impossible to find a qualified person who is able to do this job in such a short time.

Third, though Kasit has no strong support in the Democrat Party, he has the backing of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which is pushing the government to keep Kasit.

Kasit is a Democrat who actively participated in the PAD's protest against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and is one of the 25 PAD members charged with terrorism over the airport's closure. Morally, the PAD needs to defend Kasit, and politically it needs Kasit as a link between the PAD and the Democrat-led government.

PAD also believes that Kasit is good at dealing with Cambodia over the border conflict. Some PAD members believe that it was Kasit who stopped Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban from cutting a deal with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen over the overlapping of the Gulf of Thailand area and the Preah Vihear temple.

The fourth reason is that Kasit himself would do all he can to retain his position so he can prove that he had little to do with the airport seizures. Kasit has already said that he was simply fighting for democracy and the charge of terrorism is unreasonable. He also explained that he had no problems with anyone in the government or the army and that there was no reason for anyone to pressure him to step down.

Of course, there are a lot of reasons why Kasit will not be able to hang on to his job, though that's a subject that will have to be discussed tomorrow.