Can the Northeast gap be narrowed?

The recent by-elections in Sakon Nakhon and Si Sa Ket have confirmed that the Northeast remains Thailand's most restive - or docile - region politically, depending on which way we look at it. The easy victories of Pheu Thai candidates in the by-elections can be either a show of defiance, or demonstration of unwavering loyalty, or both. Whatever the real message the elections' results tell us, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's pledge made during his swearing-in ceremony to reach out to the region seems to have made very little progress.

The results have significantly changed the complexion of the on-going political game. All of a sudden the Democrat Party's allies, particularly the Bhum Jai Thai Party, have realised their upperhand was not as strong as initially thought. Bhum Jai Thai had always given the Democrats a thinly-veiled threat of a revolt, believing that there was no way for it to go but up. Bhum Jai Thai expected to serve as a new centre of gravity, drawing new House seats, defectors and new sponsorship to its door.

Pheu Thai's "Punish the Betrayers" election campaigns brought Bhum Jai Thai down to earth in just a matter of days. More than that, the Democrat-Bhum Jai Thai-Pheu Thai triangle has become clearer than ever. This means everything is hanging in the balance, and all the three possible match-ups -Democrat-Bhum Jai Thai (the current formula), Democrat-Pheu Thai and Pheu Thai-Bhum Jai Thai - will dictate thinking, manoeuvrings and trade-offs in the months to come.

It's not surprising that Abhisit is planning a political tour of the Northeast. His reaching out pledge had given way to many pressing issues including the Songkran turmoil, but the by-elections' results must have reminded him of the region's importance. Although the Democrats did not suffer directly from the election humiliations, the results sent out a warning, loud and clear, to everyone except Pheu Thai.

The opposition party now commands nearly 80 northeastern MPs, almost four times the number of Bhum Jai Thai representatives in the region. Abhisit's party has only five northeastern MPs.

Before the Sakon Nakhon by-election two weeks ago, Bhum Jai Thai was upbeat. The poll was dubbed as the first assault of a campaign to end Thaksin Shinawatra's influence in the Northeast. As it turns out, the mountain to climb is looking even higher.

The Democrats and Bhum Jai Thai must have realised Pheu Thai is here to stay, and that they will have to learn to live with this "enemy". Pheu Thai, on the other hand, has been given a morale boost knowing that whatever happens anywhere else politically, it will remain a force to be reckoned with as long as it keeps the stranglehold on the Northeast.

 Rumours that Abhisit was "giving up" on the Northeast and ready to let Newin Chidchob's Bhum Jai Thai fight it virtually alone in the region in the next election were denied on Friday by the prime minister himself. Though those rumours sounded a bit too far-fetched, many Democrats were said to be upset by them, and that could be a reason why Abhisit had to come out to declare that his party would still give its all in the Northeast.

Whereas the Northeast will be a major battleground in the next election, how the region features in a future political realignment may hold keys to whether Thailand is heading for better or worse. A North-South marriage theory - an alliance between the Democrats and Pheu Thai - has been mooted and caught considerable attention.

Great obstacles remain in abundance, obviously. Even during "peace times", the Democrats were always on the opposite side of parties prominent in the North and Northeast. Throw in Thaksin and the scars left by party dissolutions, street protests, crackdown and violence, it seems a government made up of North-South parties is still very much a pipe dream.

But then again, the unpredictability of Thai politics can come full circle. After all, back in between 2001-2003, who would have thought Sondhi Limthongkul would turn against Thaksin? Early last year who would have thought the October elements which were influential in the People Power Party would welcome Samak Sundaravej as their leader and prime minister? And in the middle of last year who would have predicted that by the end of the year, Newin would betray Thaksin and hand Abhisit the premiership?

Things more unimaginable have happened over the past few years, so we shouldn't discount anything. That much we know.