Pheu thai still looking for its elusive leader

The dilemma facing the Pheu Thai Party is showing no signs of abating. In fact, the soul-searching question of whether it should remain absolutely loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra has been echoed by two recent but separate events, each pointing to a different answer. The great election victories in Sakon Nakhon and Si Sa Ket have underlined the apparent indispensability of the man on the run, whereas the party's desperate search for a new leader is confirming the risks associated with such unwavering allegiance.

The opposition party will keep winning elections, particularly ones taking place in the North and Northeast. The problem is, unless it can find a leader who is completely out of Thaksin's shadow, the party's political path will likely remain an ominous circle.

That the party has reportedly pondered giving the helm to Snoh Thienthong indicates it is still prepared to take the risks that come with the Thaksin label. Snoh's relationship with the ousted leader has been a roller-coaster for years. Thanks to Snoh's - the kingmaker's - support, Thaksin managed to take that extra step from a political rising star to a powerful politician in the early 2000s. Then came the break-up, which made Snoh tell everybody he met that helping propel Thaksin to the premiership was the biggest mistake of his life. For a while, Snoh's name was mentioned favourably at the anti-Thaksin rallies of the People's Alliance for Democracy.

Yet another dramatic U-turn happened after the People Power Party's election landslide confirmed Thaksin's unchanged popularity in the North and Northeast. Citing "the will of the people", Snoh's party joined a government whose main policy was to amend the laws and Constitution to absolve Thaksin. The two men's reunion was complete late last year when Snoh fought tooth and nail in a bid to install a Pheu Thai-led coalition as the new government following the collapse of the Somchai Wongsawat administration.

Samak Sundaravej, then Somchai, and now potentially Snoh. Pheu Thai, the reincarnation of the People Power Party, which was the reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai Party, has never seemed to waver on where its loyalty lies. The occasional rumours about the temptation to turn away from Thaksin, particularly if he were no longer financially capable of supporting its activities, have been quelled by the two by-election triumphs, at least for now.

The logic for digging deep and fighting on is strong: if Pheu Thai is to shake off Thaksin and "start anew", everything can crumble before the purported new life can get started. If there had been concern about such a fate, it became a real fear after election campaigns featuring a "Punish the betrayers" theme swept away opponents with absolute ease.

This seems to take nobody anywhere. The Thaksin connection has not only doomed two PPP-led governments, but also made Pheu Thai extremely unattractive when it comes to courting credible persons to be its leader. And the blanket ban on senior politicians associated with Thaksin means the party's choices have been totally limited and revolve around notorious names like Chalerm Yoobamrung.

If the Snoh approach showed desperation, an arguably lower point came earlier when the party reportedly turned toward yet another of the most controversial names in Thai politics. If the idea of installing Manoonkrit Roopkachorn as Pheu Thai leader had materialised, it would have been one of the biggest ironies in the whole political crisis. A staunchly anti-coup political party, no matter how hopeless, is not supposed to be associated with, let alone led by, one of the best-known former coup plotters in Thai history.

The planned signature campaign to seek a royal pardon for Thaksin tells us that Pheu Thai is unlikely to change its identity in the near future. Such a campaign requires networks and the mechanisms of a political party, and if or when it goes into full swing, Pheu Thai may look even closer to Thaksin than ever before.

It's a very difficult situation when an organisation's weaknesses and strengths seem to intertwine. As long as Pheu Thai supporters still carry Thaksin's photos to their political rallies, they have a common goal and any party must take heart in that. The man's return has become an unachieved agenda that is binding his supporters, who number millions.

Although Thaksin is anything but an ideal to die for, a political party that devotes itself totally to him looks like becoming an integral part of politics for the long haul. That party, however, must have known what the rest of the country already knew: to everyone, Thaksin comes with a big price.