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SINGAPORE EXCHANGE

Big rise in price of Dtac shares



Total Access Communication (DTAC) is not aware of any change in its business that could have prompted a recent substantial rise in its share price on the Singapore Exchange.

DTAC, which trades shares in both the Thailand and Singaporean bourses, submitted the statement to both markets yesterday after it was asked by the latter to explain the rise.

DTAC's share price in Singapore on Tuesday closed at 90.5 US cents, before moving up to close at US$1.10 on Wednesday. Yesterday, the stock peaked at $1.44 before closing at 99.5 cents.

Its share price in Thailand closed at Bt33 yesterday, up from Wednesday's close of Bt32.75.

DTAC's normalised profit in the second quarter is expected to drop 39 per cent year on year to Bt1.3 billion, due mainly to seasonal factors, according to a Thai telecom analyst. The second quarter is the normal low season for call use.

The analyst said DTAC's cost-control measures should put a cap on its costs in the second half. DTAC plans to cut its marketing budget and renegotiate service fees with subcontractors for IT and maintenance services.

A slowdown in network expansion should lead to slower growth in network maintenance costs.

DTAC is expected to announce its second-quarter results in the next three weeks.

In a separate matter, Australia-based global advisory and consulting firm Ovum forecast that global mobile service revenue would breach US$1 trillion (Bt34 trillion) in 2011, and not next year as forecast earlier, due to the economic recession.

The greatest impact of recessionary forces is seen in the short term. In the Asia-Pacific, Ovum has lowered its revenue-growth forecasts for this year to 8 per cent, from 10 per cent in previously published figures, it said in a statement.

However, the projected cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2008-13 remains relatively stable at 6.6 per cent.

"The recessionary impact on the mobile market in Asia will be relatively muted, and led by China and India, mobile service revenue will continue to grow," said Ovum analyst Nathan Burley.

"By 2014, Ovum expects total Asia-Pacific mobile-operator service revenues to reach $326 billion."

Voice will continue to be the largest revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 69 per cent of revenues on a global basis and 66 per cent in the Asia-Pacific. As a result, voice will continue to be mobile's "killer app". Operators must not ignore this fact in the race for data revenue, he said.

By the end of 2014, Ovum forecasts 6.42 billion connections, up 59 per cent from last year, and a CAGR of 8 per cent. The Asia-Pacific will experience a 10-per-cent CAGR, with penetration reaching 78 per cent, highlighting potential for further growth.

In developed (and some emerging) markets, mobile penetration will well exceed 100 per cent, but further growth will still be possible from multiple SIM ownership and through uptake of data-centric devices. As such, population penetration is ceasing to be a useful indicator, Ovum said.



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