The makings of a strange alliance

In politics, uncertainty is always certain, just like there are no permanent friends or foes. So, we should neither rule out the report nor blindly believe it.

Here are five reasons that may make the joining of hands by the two big parties possible:

- The outcome of the Sakon Nakhon and Si Sa Ket by-elections indicated voters in the Northeast remained loyal to Thaksin and his party, no matter what it was called. If the Democrats accept that truth, they may hold out an olive branch and let Thaksin conquer the Northeast. If the Democrats, who are strong in the South and Bangkok, join up with Pheu Thai, which dominates the Northeast, it could be one of the strongest coalitions in Thai political history.

- With Thaksin's star shining bright in the Northeast, the Democrats realise they cannot rely on Newin Chidchob, who was once seen as the most powerful Thaksin challenger in that region. Actually, the closer you get to the Bhum Jai Thai Party's de-facto leader, the less popular you will be in the Northeast. Also, the ruling party is threatened by Newin's excessive demands. So maybe it is the perfect time to kick Newin out of the coalition, because if his party is thrown out, the Democrats will have to maintain its majority by seeking support from MPs of other parties.

- The relationship between the Democrats and other coalition parties seems to have soured over budget allocations, and the ruling party is starting to feel insecure, because its partners are holding secret meetings. This could be another reason to throw out people like Newin.

- The Democrats are uncertain how long their government will last. Its MPs are being investigated on shareholdings and could lose their parliamentary posts, and one-time supporters of the Democrat Party, like some Senators and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), are turning their backs. Last week, the senate rejected an oil-tax hike, while the railway union - led by one of the PAD's leaders - called a strike to oppose the government's reorganisation plan for the State Railway of Thailand.

- As long as Thaksin is not named as leader of Pheu Thai Party, it can join the Democrats and form a two-party government with 360 seats.

Here are five reasons that make the joining up of the two parties impossible:

- The Democrats would be at a disadvantage as Thaksin gains the upper hand, especially after two by-election victories. Despite having no "real" leader, Pheu Thai as the largest party would have 187 seats, followed by the Democrats with 173 seats. This might mean there would be more fights: who would be the prime minister, and how would ministerial quotas be allocated?

- With this victory, Thaksin may feel ambitious and desire a total comeback. He may want the Democrats to dissolve the House so he can win the elections by a landslide.

- Thaksin has requested a royal pardon and the return of Bt76 billion worth of frozen assets. It is unlikely the Democrats will agree to this for fear of losing public support.

- The two parties, like oil and water, just cannot be mixed. While the Democrats have military support and is run in a bureaucratic style, the Pheu Thai stays away from the military and is run like a business.

- The two parties have different goals. Thaksin wants the House to be dissolved, the elitist party overthrown and to return home without any punishment - demands that simply cannot be met by the Democrats.

jintana@nationgroup.com