
The victories did not mean that Thaksin could get back home to reclaim political power after a military coup toppled him three years ago. The rally of red-shirt supporters on Saturday night gave him another opportunity to plead for help. He has been languishing abroad, mostly in Dubai, for three years and does not want to face a lonely death in the desert.
The defeats represented a no-contest between the two coalition partners against Pheu Thai. The gap in the number of votes was so vast that it took less than an hour for the results to be known. Pheu Thai ringleaders were overjoyed by the outcome. They challenged Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to dissolve the House and hold general elections if he has enough guts.
It has become a joint effort by the red-shirt activists and Pheu Thai Party to bring Thaksin home at any cost. That includes national instability. It is also their goal to unseat Abhisit as soon as possible so that Thaksin can be free from legal troubles, especially a two-year jail term.
The public saw that Thaksin's influence was still considerable. This raises a fearsome possibility that he would again become a political overlord with an authoritarian streak. More dreadful is that there could be full-scale corruption with politicians and cronies taking big cuts and kickbacks from multi-million-baht projects.
Should Abhisit and the coalition partners be frightened by the prospect of losing power in a very near future as their performance in office has not been up to par as shown by a public opinion poll by a university? Not yet. The people, by and large, are not yet in the mood to go to the polling booths now that the country is plagued by unending political, economic and health crises.
Thaksin admirers have voted for Pheu Thai Party candidates in the Northeast, but it remains a far cry for urban people to embrace his return. The disgraced politician in exile has yet to clear his name from 17 pending criminal allegations related to malpractices in office.
On the contrary, the by-election results should have convinced all coalition partners to band together and reduce the bickering over vested interests during the past six months. If they continue to fight for plum projects amidst the public outrage, it means they want to hasten their departure due to growing negative views of those previously sympathetic to the government.
Leaders of the defeated parties should feel that they would be needed more than ever by the coalition core. At the same time, the Democrats can also feel that the people need them as well if they don't want Thaksin back to haunt the country's coffers while his cronies lurk around to plunder national assets again.
What's more, the coalition is not ready for a break-up, despite the haggling over who should get what and how much. The budgetary allocations await final passage after many multi-million-baht projects have been prepared to improve the government image for a longer stay in office.
Still, if the coalition government continues to limp along with an unimpressive performance in tackling chronic and new problems, it would not take long for the people to feel that they might have to choose between the devil and the deep blue sea if their tolerance thins out.
Until then, the government has some more time to show competence in crisis management. The fiscal position doesn't look too good amidst dim prospects for an increase in exports. The poor handling of the type-A (H1N1) flu, which has caused three deaths, does not inspire much confidence as the number of those infected also rises by almost a hundred cases daily.
Abhisit still has some room for manoeuvre while he stands out as the only selling point with credibility and integrity. So far, he has not been shunned by foreign leaders when he holds bilateral talks. What is needed from him is decisiveness in saying "no" when faced with unreasonable propositions.
If the government's popularity rating does not slip further, Thaksin and his cronies will have to wait longer. The euphoria over the by-election victories would not make them feel justified in paving the way for the quick return of the fugitive in exile.