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In other words, although Thaksin is still capable of haunting his opponents, it's Newin who will still be haunting us. The former premier's last-minute phone-ins turned the tide in Pheu Thai's favour in the by-election battle, but how many of you really cared or were even aware of that? We have all had a new obsession - the Newin-Abhisit stormy love affair.

The Democrats have been dutifully sending condolences to Bhum Jai Thai, but at their private meetings chuckles must be endless. Newspapers also gave Newin and Co little sympathy, portraying their defeat as a shocking, if not embarrassing, upset. That, however, says a lot about the reversal in fortunes of the two men.

It took years of Thaksin to make people who had never thought they would embrace Newin warm up to the younger guy. And it has taken just months of Newin to make many people feel that a Thaksin election win is not too bad. The Sakon Nakhon poll has brought Newin down to earth and given him that popular lesson in politics - "Not too fast".

This is not to say that Newin is rashly ambitious and that it will be his downfall. One key difference between him and Thaksin is Newin is flexible and knows when to stop, concede, or even hide. And unlike the Bhum Jai Thai candidate in the by-election, Newin won't roll over and die. He remains one of the most important pillars supporting the Abhisit government and records show he has always thrived in this kind of situation.

With the waters he has tested being unkind, Newin will take a step or two back. The big push for the NGV "bus from hell" project will be eased somewhat. The significance of the by-election results is not the still prevailing popularity of Thaksin in the Northeast. That is old news. The real effect of the poll is it has unmistakably warned Newin to slow down.

For the first time, the Democrats must feel thankful to Thaksin. Their implicit threat to dump rebellious coalition allies and function as a "minority government" sounded lame before the election, but a similar warning - leaked to the press this week - seems to carry a different weight. It doesn't take a veteran like Newin to know the risks associated with a House dissolution at the moment.

Politics has returned to that point where politicians can't love or hate each other too much. It's a triangular affair at the moment. Rumours that the Democrats were sending olive branches to at least some Pheu Thai MPs out of hope their potential defection could help keep Newin in check have been replaced by wilder ones. Now Government House gossips have it that the whole Pheu Thai Party would be welcomed to join the administration if it completely shook off Thaksin's shadows and named a credible new leader, someone like MR Pridiyathorn Devakula.

Initially, it looked as if the Democrat-Newin marriage materialised because there was no alternative. That might really have been the case, but things have changed. The coupling has become just one of several options or possibilities. If you get good odds on a Democrat-Pheu Thai alliance, bet on it.

Newin will try his best to prevent you from winning, of course. It was he who brought us back to this point, when he decided to betray former boss Thaksin in December last year. He took us back here partly because he knew the Thaksin formula was not working, and partly because he is one of the best players around when politics is like this.

Should we be happy about it? That depends on how idealistic, or pragmatic, we are. Monday's headlines - something along the lines of "Thaksin knocks out Newin in Sakon Nakhon" - gave us strange feelings, but how would it be if the opposite was in the headlines? To go to the extreme, what if we woke up from a five-year coma and saw a headline: "Thaksin, Newin lead TRT to landslide"?

I, for one, would slip back into unconsciousness.