Coaliton plods along the potholed path of Thai politics

The political situation is twisting and turning in a weird way.

An ex-Democrat Manoonkrit Roopkachorn is about to team up with the Thaksin camp. The Senate is about to embark on a government bashing over public debt. And a large number of MPs and senators are about to face legal hurdles over the equity rules.

For Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the situation may be worrisome indeed. But none of the issues confronting him are sufficiently lethal to cause an early collapse of his government.

At the very top of the list for trickery is the planned political marriage between Manoonkrit and ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Manoonkrit is reportedly poised to finalise his decision to adopt the banner of the Pheu Thai Party. He is tipped to assume the party leadership under puppeteer Thaksin.

Throughout his enigmatic career, Manoonkrit has presented different faces to different people. Though he is seen as a democracy advocate, he was a notorious coup plotter involved in a series of failed and successful power seizures.

He is a retired soldier with an unblemished record for valour in serving the monarchy. But at one time he was suspected of involvement in an assassination plot against the Royal Family, even though he has been vindicated.

He proclaimed he abhorred partisan politics. Yet he made an about-turn to pledge allegiance to the Democrat Party before parting ways last year because the oldest political party decided to lead the coalition instead of forcing a snap election.

Based on protege-mentor ties as fellow cavalry officers, he is seen as the son chief royal adviser Prem Tinsulanonda never had.

It is generally understood Thaksin sees Prem as his archenemy. The plot thickens when Manoonkrit is drifting closer to the Thaksin camp.

If judged on personalities, Thaksin and Manoonkrit have absolutely no chemistry to work together. A hard-headed puppet and an autocratic puppeteer are odd bedfellows.

At the last general election, Thaksin went out of his way to successfully woo the support of former prime minister and staunch royalist Samak Sundaravej.

It is an open secret that Thaksin was disappointed at Samak's failure to secure him a royal pardon. Thaksin's cousin Chaisit Shinawatra organised a superstitious ceremony to jinx the names of several privy councillors who reportedly opposed the pardon.

By his own admission, Thaksin has been lobbying through a number of courtiers. But his weakest link is a lack of connections within the Privy Council.

It is a distinct possibility Thaksin may renew his networking efforts to win a pardon through Manoonkrit. The same can be said about Manoonkrit being a trojan horse. Don't blink in this high-stakes game of political poker.

In the legislative branch, the Senate has turned the de facto opposition on the government by attempting to block key pieces of legislation seen as the lynchpin for the economic revitalisation package.

Last week the Election Commission dropped a political bombshell by disqualifying 16 senators for violating the equity rules. Later this week, it will likely extend its ruling to dozens of MPs and Cabinet members.

The debate on the equity rules will likely take months to settle through the judicial review by the Constitution Court. The government will have plenty of time to weigh options should the verdict be unfavourable.

The upset defeat of the Bhum Jai Thai Party in Sunday's by-election in Sakon Nakhon just added to the growing list of political woes facing the coalition alliance.

The prognosis for the government's survival may remain hopeful, but the path traversed by the coalition bandwaggon is filled with potholes.