Who really fought in Sakon Nakhon?

Despite the campaigns and other such ballyhoo for its first election, the coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai Party lost by almost 50 per cent to its rival Pheu Thai Party.

Still, this stunning loss gives us reason to consider the following 10 points:

This result does not show the entire picture of Thai politics, nor can it explain the battle between the government, coalition partners and the opposition.

This by-election should, in fact, have been a scrap between the opposition Pheu Thai Party's Anurak Bunsol and coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai's Pitak Chansri. Sadly, it turned out to be a battle between two banned politicians - Thaksin Shinawatra and his ex-right-hand man Newin Chidchob.

This is probably why most newspaper headlines were screaming: "Thaksin scores over Newin" or "Newin lost to Thaksin".

l Thaksin and his party, no matter what it is called, will remain popular in the Northeast. The people will remain loyal to Thaksin - the only prime minister who recognised them. Not only did Thaksin make their lives better through Thai Rak Thai's populist policies, but he also was the only premier they could access.

l Isaan people hate ungrateful people, and Pheu Thai capitalised on this by attacking Newin. They distributed leaflets carrying pictures of Newin hugging Thaksin and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva under the headline "Sakon Nakhon residents: oppose this disgraceful man".

l It is easy to impress villagers with hi-tech communications and reality shows, and Interior Minister and Bhum Jai Thai leader, Chaovarat Chanweerakul, tried to cash in on this by having his team hold reality-show type campaigns at Wat Noan Sawan in Sakon Nakhon.

The show aimed to test the popularity of his party against Thaksin's. Sadly, it was ineffective. All Thaksin - a former telecoms tycoon and a globetrotter - had to do to win was talk to his supporters via phone-ins and call the 10 kamnan and village chiefs personally ask for their support.

l Party executives should pick up on this fugitive former prime minister's management skills, who seems to be able to handle things from overseas and easily lead his party to victory.

l It is not always true that candidates from a government's party will win an election. Even though the Democrats are ruling the country, and earlier candidates from its coalition partners had won by-elections in 30 constituencies, Sakon Nakhon has been an exception to the rule. Perhaps the government's performance, especially in terms of tackling with the economic crisis, has failed to impress voters.

l Sakon Nakhon's results may make many of the Isaan MPs, wondering whether to join Newin's or Thaksin's parties, reconsider their decision.

l Known as a cunning politician, who rarely loses a political battle, Newin might be facing one of the toughest tasks since he was taken into custody after the 2006 military coup. It is not good for a party to lose its first electoral battle, and though the party insists it hasn't lost the actual war, Newin still needs to revamp his strategy to conquer Thaksin's popularity in the Northeast.

l This result might put a smile on Abhisit's face, because even though Newin helped him form the government, he and his Bhum Jai Thai have been clashing with the Democrats over some government projects. Maybe this time Newin will be less aggressive and tone down his power-bargaining tactics and ambition.

l Thaksin's enemies should not underestimate his powers, because this is a man who cannot be easily got rid of in Thailand's political scene.