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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Sino-Thai relations: not only about panda and longan

On the surface, the resident status of a three-week old unnamed baby panda born in Chiang Mai will be the most visible barometer of the state of Sino-Thai relations in weeks to come. After all, this cutie tops the agenda when Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva begins a four-day official visit on Wednesday to China.



Lin Hui and her baby have instantly become Thai national idols. The media frenzy - minute to minute reporting - of the Thai-born cub has been phenomenal, generating an avalanche of expectations that the cub is here to stay. Some even said absurdly that it belongs to Thailand. Half a million people have already joined in a countrywide contest to name the baby panda. Even more people are expected to take part in picking one of the four short-listed names: Ying-ying, Tai-jin, Khwan Thai, Lin-ping.

But there is one problem. Under the agreement, any baby panda born abroad must be sent home within two years or in May 2011. Lin Hui and her mate - on a 10-year loan from China - are scheduled to return in 2013. It will certainly cause heartbreak among the Thais when they realise the cub will be here for just another 639 days! Therefore, Abhisit's first mission will be to ask the Chinese government to extend the cub's stay at the zoo.

As far as the panda's diplomacy is concerned, China has been quite generous with Thailand. It is highly unlikely that Beijing would change that firmly established sentiment and halt Thailand's happy hours with the panda. The Chiang Mai Zoo is keen to keep and nurture the cub as long as possible to attract local and foreign tourists. The construction of a Bt60-million new snow-generated dome for the cub will be completed next month. Both countries need to work out a new arrangement - a two-year extension for her perhaps - that would allow the whole family to return altogether in 2013. The result will be announced during the visit.

Beyond the baby panda, Abhisit's high-profile visit to China marks a new beginning of this longstanding friendship. Beijing has been eager to forge and deepen relations with Bangkok. Political uncertainties, with frequent changes of Thai leaders and policies, have prevented the two countries from lifting their cooperation to the next level. After the 2006 coup, which ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Sino-Thai relations entered their most turbulent period - caught between leaders' rapport and the national interest. Reported news of Thaksin's using Beijing - even though unsubstantiated - to discredit Thailand and its leaders caused high anxiety at home. Fortunately, visits by members of the Thai royal family were not interrupted during this period.

Global financial crisis, necessitating greater urgency for closer cooperation among Asean and its East Asian dialogue partners, has been a blessing for Thailand as it has helped to raise its much-needed profile. As the Asean chair, Abhisit has spoken and articulated key issues affecting the region on behalf of Asean at various international forums. But the jury is still out whether his regional and international recognition would transpire into domestic strength - avoiding the Gorbachev syndrome.

Sino-Thai increased cooperation extends beyond efforts to reinvigorate regional economic well-being as political and security imperatives have permeated it, unavoidably broadening once strictly defined bilateral relations as never before.

Their close consultations over the Burmese crisis and North Korea's nuclear issue are indicative of this transformation.

When Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya was in Beijing early June, he discussed with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, how the two countries could help drive existing regional and global processes to further cement peace and stability in the region. They shared similar views on Burma. Beijing supports the growing Asean effort to help end political impasse in Rangoon and promote national reconciliation. As a frontline state and the Asean chair, Abhisit wants a Burma that is open, stable and well integrated with Asean. They also agree that the Asean Charter has given the grouping new confidence and creditability.

It must be noted here that China prefers a stronger regional drive to resolve the Burmese quagmire. While the UN's involvement, especially at the UN Security Council, is crucial, it tends to complicate the major powers' strategic priorities. Beijing knows full well the importance of Asean's role in the current crisis but the grouping apparently was unable to get its act together until the adoption of the Asean Charter.

From Beijing's viewpoint, this is a welcome development as China has shouldered repeated international condemnation for doing little about its southeast neighbour. With the Asean chair's statement on Burma issued on May 19, China can hopefully build on this regional process and give it a proper push.

In the crisis in the Korean Peninsula - unlike Burma - the UNSC-led sanction has been the main vehicle. The improvement in Sino-US relations, welcomed by the Asean chair, would serve as a key pillar for regional stability. At the Asean-Korea summit in Jeju Island, Korea early this month, Abhisit called on members of the six-party talks to utilise the region-wide Asean Regional Forum (ARF) while waiting for the resumption of talks. In previous ARF meetings, these players downplayed the forum for its lack of a conflict resolution mechanism.

North Korea, which joined the ARF in 2000, might dispatch Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun to the ARF meeting scheduled for June 22 in Phuket to end its international isolation, or perhaps as a jump-start to the resumption of the six-party talks.

During the visit, two agreements will be signed to deepen Sino-Thai non-political cooperation. The first aims to boost trade and investment. Both sides will reaffirm the earlier agreed target of US$50 billion (Bt1.7trillion) of two-way trade volume and $6.5 billion worth of investment by next year. Furthermore, tourists from both countries are expected to reach 4 million annually, beginning next year.

The second agreement is a memorandum of understanding on educational promotion and cooperation. Over the years, exchange students have increased dramatically with more than 20,000 Chinese students currently studying in Thailand while China has attracted more than 10,000 Thai students. Of late, education has emerged as one of the most dynamic areas of cooperation. Due to the popularity of pu-tong-hua (Mandarin), Thailand has already asked China to dispatch 2,000 Chinese language instructors this academic year.

Obviously, Sino-Thai relations are no longer in the same old mould, characterised by Thailand's growing dependency on China. These days they are more dynamic and impact regional and global scenes, within the context of a newly emerged strategic environment and a growing capacity of the former as a global power and the latter as a regional leader. Their common challenge is how to synchronise their foreign policy agendas into mutually beneficial ones.



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