It'll get blurrier and blurrier

It is the simplest political survival theory. If a ruling party has problems with a powerful, mathematically indispensible ally, it will first try to shop for a replacement before pondering the least attractive option of House dissolution. It isn't that simple, though, if Abhisit's unique situation is taken into account.

We all know he's having accumulating trouble with Newin Chidchob, who led a dramatic mass defection to his side from the pro-Thaksin camp. That reluctant political marriage had early divorce written all over it from day one, and the NGV bus-leasing controversy and growing ambitions of the Bhum Jai Thai Party are pushing the relationship closer to the brink.

The irony is, to cushion the impact of severed ties with Newin, Abhisit will need someone in the opposition Pheu Thai Party to do a Newin. Can the prime minister find around 30 Pheu Thai MPs willing to switch sides if Newin's group defects or is cut loose? Thai political history shows that, given the right incentives, it will be as hard as putting a hot knife through a piece of butter.

The Pheu Thai defection scenario has some technical problems. MPs can't just walk over to a new party unless they are fired by their old party for, say, voting their conscience. If it is legally impossible for Pheu Thai MPs to defect, we may get to see a phenomenon where the MPs' "bodies" remain with the opposition party but their "hearts" belong to the Democrats.

Pheu Thai is still a largely unmotivated party, whose members are either frustrated, unsure or downright demoralised. Thaksin Shinawatra's latest phone-ins to party meetings were aimed at lifting the mood, but some party sources said that even he no longer sounds convincing. Party key members have been trying to seek assurance from Thaksin on whether he is still up for a fight, but while the verbal answer was an emphatic "Yes", how strong his financial commitment is seems far less certain.

The political scene, clearly divided for so long, is starting to look fragmented. When the People's Alliance for Democracy fully enter the fray as a new political party, we will likely see free-for-all battles just like in the good old days. Sometimes, that is not so bad.