An Bt800-bn lollipop to pacify partners and silence foes

Today's legislative vote on the public debt to jump-start the economy will essentially give a breathing space for Prime Minister Abhisit to keep his coalition alliance intact.

Any doomsayers - if they predicted a short-lived coalition - should look again at reality

The Bt800 billion package is like a giant lollipop to pacify petulant coalition partners. Will any sensible electioneers, such as faction leader Newin Chidchob, look for a greener pasture if their backyard is plentiful?

Of the total package, about Bt500 billion will be allocated to mega projects under the jurisdiction of the Bhum Jai Thai Party.

The controversy over the Bt64 billion bus-leasing project suddenly becomes small change when Bhum Jai Thai is given a much bigger purse to control.

The Bt300 billion remainder of the package will be under ministries supervised by the Democrat and Chart Pattana parties.

The Democrat's modest share of the package should not be construed as an upstage by Bhum Jai Thai.

As the coalition leader, Abhisit will have the final say on all planned spending, either through the Cabinet review or through disbursement, via his Finance Ministry Korn Chatikavanij.

In the week leading to the House debate, Korn and ranking Democrats spent countless hours brokering deals with coalition partners in order to ensure the passage of two key pieces of legislation authorising the public debt.

Although the Democrats tried to reason with the opposition lawmakers, they paid far more attention to ensuring coalition support instead of convincing the opposition bench.

In the eyes of the Democrats, the House debate is a test of the coalition strength rather than a battle with the opposition.

Then why has the opposition been doing so much sabre-rattling?

Opposition lawmakers are, of course, doing their job to ensure transparency and pre-empt any foul play.

But more importantly, the noise from the opposition bench reflects the concern over the fate of incumbent Pheu Thai MPs seeking re-election bids.

Several planned spendings that the Abhisit government are about to launch, have been on the drawing board since the Thaksin Shinawatra administration.

The mega projects made no headway in the implementing stage, even though two preceding governments under Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat were seen as the pro-Thaksin camp.

This failure was attributed to the pro-Thaksin politicians stabbing one another in the back. Various cliques just did not want the other to outshine them.

It is understandable Pheu Thai MPs see themselves as being left in the lurch, while their treacherous allies of the Newin faction are about to reap the rewards.

Even ex-premier Thaksin broke his month-long hiatus on Sunday for a phone-in to his red-shirt supporters in Udon Thani, ranting about his betrayal.

Thaksin is not poor by any standards - but the writing is all over the wall if he has to match campaigning funds against those with control off the state coffers.

Inspite of Thaksin's backing, Pheu Thai faced a dismal outcome in the January by-elections.

The main opposition party will likely experience the repeat of dwindling support in Sunday's by-election in Sakhon Nakhon and in next week's poll in Si Sa Ket.

The more the government is on course to spend its way out of the economic downturn, the deeper is Pheu Thai's fall into disarray.

Pheu Thai, particularly its chief backer Thaksin, is about to get a bitter lesson as its rivals work to defeat it using its own campaigning formula.

Although the opposition may be kept at bay, this is no time for reprieve for Abhisit. A miscalculated move over the passing around of the Bt800 billion lollipop among his coalition partners may see the coalition bandwagon sinking by its own weight.