Thai GDP may contract 5%: SCB

 Contributing to the domestic downturn is the plunge in the tourism and export-oriented manufacturing industries.

 The automotive industry, electrical appliances, and electronics products witnessed a 43 per cent, 20 per cent and 14 per cent drop in exports since July 2008, when the global economy started to feel the pinch from the US financial meltdown.

 However, employment would rise due mainly to the drop in the tourism industry, due to the greater number of small businesses and the linkage to several sectors like hotels and restaurants. Small and medium-sized businesses in the industry employ 80-90 per cent of jobs in the tourism industry, compared to 30 per cent of SMEs in the three manufacturing sectors.

 The centre also noted that the global economy has sent limited impacts on Thai companies' wealth. Indeed, real estate prices have spiked despite the downturn. Meanwhile, food manufacturers have enjoyed an increase in business, though consumers tighten their belts on other items.

 "The manufacturing sector should see the bottom sooon, due to the improvement in industrial output in March and April. However, we should beware of the continued decline of the  tourism industry," the centre said.