Stars are beaming down on Newin

For a common observer like me, though, the best tell-tale sign will come on June 21, when the Pheu Thai Party and the Bhum Jai Thai Party will compete in an election for the very first time.

The by-election in Sakhon Nakhon's Constituency 3 isn't the focus of outsiders' attention yet.

But it will certainly be. For Pheu Thai, it must fight to keep a House seat made vacant by an Election Commission red card to its holder. Meanwhile, Bhum Jai Thai, if it really wants to assert itself as the new political force, will have to win this one.

It will be a clash between Newin's looming shadow and Thaksin's fading one. The loser won't suffer only a major loss of face, but also a very tangible setback. Defeat for Pheu Thai can edge it closer to the feared rat-ship scenario. Bhum Jai Thai's failure, on the other hand, would deal its ambition a big blow, making future recruiting much more difficult.

Logistically, Bhum Jai Thai may hold an advantage, not least because it's now a part of the coalition government. Party leaders have been parading to the battleground and everyone is busy helping with the preparations. Pheu Thai sources also allege that Newin's men were receiving assistance from some men in uniform in the province.

 Pheu Thai pins its hope on the one man who can't set foot on the war zone or get anywhere near Thailand. But wherever he is, Thaksin must realise the significance of this election.

Sakhon Nakhon's Constituency 3 has become the first line of defence against the enemies' unmistakable plan to penetrate and then blitz the Northeast. If the constituency falls, it will shatter the party's morale for the bigger battle.

Call this an operation to neutralise the Northeast. Although Thaksin is powerless, on the run and allegedly ill, his opponents believe his ghost will continue to haunt them unless his northeastern political fortress is breached.

As for the ruling Democrat Party, it will watch the Sakhon Nakhon showdown somewhat ambivalently. A Pheu Thai loss will simply means its biggest enemy won't bounce back any time soon. But that will galvanise Newin, who is already the most radiant man in the eyes of karma scanners.