Bhum Jai Thai leading a cleverly choreographed dance

Although the coalition alliance has been undergoing a rough patch in recent weeks, the two coalition parties - Bhum Jai Thai and Democrat - are not clashing over irreconcilable issues.

The political heat is nothing but a side effect, because Bhum Jai Thai, particularly the Newin Chidchob faction, has grand designs to use Democrats as a springboard to boost its image as a viable banner for Pheu Thai MPs.

By acting in defiance to the Democrats, Bhum Jai Thai is becoming popular among the Isaan constituents who have always been sceptical about the leadership of the oldest party, and its status is gaining more power in the eyes of Pheu Thai MPs. Over and above this, Newin has put himself at the centre of the political stage and is wielding formidable influence.

Though Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is still in control of charting the political course, Newin appears likely to play a decisive role in shaping the next coalition.

On the façade, issues related to the bus-leasing project, the land-rent scheme and price intervention for agricultural products might appear to be seriously threatening this coalition's survival.

However, upon closer examination, none of the coalition partners have insisted on their respective stands. In fact, they appear to be willing to make compromises instead of risking the collapse of the government.

All these rumours about Bhum Jai Thai-Democrat squabbles are actually propaganda leaked by Bhum Jai Thai figures. They are meant to make the Democrats appear to meddling in the job of the coalition partners, while Bhum Jai Thai plays the choreographed role of a defiant partner reining in the main coalition party with Pheu Thai MPs and Isaan voters sitting as a rapt audience.

The debate on the bus-leasing project has been timed perfectly as a curtain raiser for the Bhum Jai Thai Party's weekend seminar in Sakon Nakhon.

The party gained extensive publicity and by bashing the Democrats it generated awareness among Isaan constituents. Plus Newin captured undivided attention when he led the rice planting "reality show" seen as a stunt to "bond" with his constituents.

For Isaan people, Newin is fast becoming an idol whose stature and popularity rivals that of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

It is no accident that Newin chose to showcase Bhum Jai Thai in Pheu Thai's backyard that is Sakon Nakhon. After all, there is a by-election there on June 21 and in Si Sa Ket on June 28.

Newin deliberately focused his party's campaigning in Sakon Nakhon where constituents have consistently voted for Pheu Thai. His victory, if it does materialise, would definitely help convince a great number of Pheu Thai MPs to switch loyalties at the next general elections.

The early popularity projections seem to be in Newin's favour. Incumbent MP Jumphot Boonyai from Sakon Nakhon has already admitted that he might adopt the Bhum Jai Thai banner, a clear sign of shifting alignments in the Northeast.

For the time being though, the Democrats appear to be the third party benefiting from the Newin-Pheu Thai battle. However, over the long run, how will the political configuration between the Democrat, Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai parties play out?

At present, the Newin faction wants to activate the charter rewrite before contesting elections. Under this scenario, it is unlikely to see the coalition collapse before the year's end. However, the real suspense lies in whether the Democrats can stay out of the Newin's shadow.