Political circus is turning into a three-way fight for might

While the opposition party is pestering him with obstacles just to block Abhisit from any tangible success, the Democrat leader is also hounded by coalition allies who aren't quite friendly when their pursuit of vested interests does not go smoothly.

Their plans to gobble up lucrative deals have been hamstrung by Democrat members in the Cabinet, causing frustration and hisses about possible breakaway from the pack. Abhisit shows that he understands the limits. That's why he assigns his deputy Suthep Thaugsuban to take charge of ego massage and healing of wounded pride.

The so-called allies in the coalition huffed, puffed and grudgingly mellowed down. They agreed to wait until the day Abhisit clearly proved whether the promise of goodies would be truly honoured. What the public sees is a series of kickbacks in those deals marked up by Cabinet members under the alliance.

We cannot expect natural enemies to work as friends for too long unless their vested interests are mutually shared with full satisfaction. What happened in the past weeks was grumbling by coalition allies over their disappointment that what they wanted did not come their way. All got stuck because, they say, the Democrats just wanted to look good at the expense of temporary friends.

"Oh. No! We certainly did not step over our allies, we just want to make sure that all of us did not get tainted by public suspicion," uttered a Democrat, who shows little regret for the allies' woes. If they part soon, nobody should expect to show that there would be any love lost between them.

What is the game plan for all to play right now? It looks like three gladiators circling one another in the arena. The Democrats and their allies take their positions while the opposition warily looks at both, to see which would make the first strike and at what target.

The other day, a heavyweight in the allied camp did not mince words when he criticised the government for its poor show during the past five months. He pointed out with thinly-veiled sarcasm that the much-heralded projects introduced by the Democrats are political pork barrels, no less.

Such harsh words could only come from a bitter mind, of course. That's understandable. The projects pursued by the allies are worth tens of billions of baht, and those involved would find the challenges very tempting. The risks about criminal prosecution are remote as long as the lower rung of the judicial process is unreliable.

Never mind the public allegations over kickbacks. There is no such clean deal ever made by politicians for the people, at least in the past few decades. To be specific, no month passed without some sort of scandals or loose talk about somebody getting shady deals from investment in politics. Only the small-fry go to jail when really caught red-handed. The big fish still go scot-free, as we see it happening.

Now, Abhisit and his team-mates have to keep the coalition allies mollified and hope that something would come their way eventually, provided the people don't raise hell or cry bloody murder when they see a sweetheart contract between ministries and contractors or traders.

At least, the opposition is doing some checks-and-balances role. It is going after the Newin faction with much vigour after the big show involving rice transplanting and the home-stay PR stunt show in Sakon Nakhon to serve as a highlight in by-election campaigns. Such distraction is welcome. For a while, the young chief executive can feel that somebody is helping get a nasty monkey off his back.

A possible House dissolution soon, as many people speculate? This still looks quite remote. Abhisit can stay on probably for several months if the pressure is bearable and horse-trading is possible. A decisive moment will come when the Cabinet again deals with the city bus project, now with a reduced price tag at Bt64 billion sought doggedly by the Newin faction.

By that time, we should know whether Abhisit still has any room for manoeuvre left, or has to decide that he should go for broke.