Judgement Day for 'Buses from Hell'

Yes, the bus-leasing project stinks. First off, you wouldn't want to put Newin Chidchob and Co anywhere near Bt67 billion, no matter how "noble" a project may sound. And if that project involves lucrative activities like bidding and paying daily maintenance charges for 4,000 vehicles, it's a recipe for a corruption horror movie of the year. No, we are not "jealous" as claimed by those in the Bhum Jai Thai Party; we are just really scared.

To be fair to those pushing for the project, though, it is time to separate facts from fiction. Since we are terrified by the thought of giving the Newin team such an enormous cheque, we tend to believe every piece of information provided by critics. Some of the data, it has turned out, is quite far from reality.

Take the argument that the 4,000 buses would need to have 5-6 million passengers a day if the project was to break even. Since the figure came from a Senate committee it has stood out as a strong point of contention. The committee's mathematicians took the initial price of the proposed 10-year lease - Bt67.9 billion - to work out a break-down to how much it will cost on a daily basis. They came up with Bt186 million, which means that the 4,000 buses would need several million passengers a day [who will pay a proposed fare of Bt30 for all-day services] to cover the daily expense.

According to my own calculation, the daily cost is Bt18.6 million, meaning if the 4,000 buses get 620,000 passengers a day, or 155 passengers a day per bus, the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority will not suffer any loss. However, this doesn't mean the Newin group is home free.

Fact is, while each bus would cost around Bt4,600 per day, requiring a very realistic 155 passengers to cover the expense, half of that price is highly questionable. If we take away the leasing fee of Bt2,082 per day (which many still find too expensive), we are left with Bt2,250 maintenance spending. Now, someone has to educate me what the heck a brand-new bus needs Bt2,250 for, day in and day out.

This brings the maintenance cost of each bus to Bt821,250 a year or Bt8.21 million over 10 years. If we are talking about an army helicopter or sophisticated navy patrol boat, I may understand. For a simple bus running on gas, what spare parts need to be changed everyday, to begin with?

Why all the fuss when a one-hour Cabinet session attended by credible mechanics should suffice? We will never know. After all, this is not about a computerised defence system designed to launch missiles without a human touch; this is only about something that can move on four wheels using gas. Any government that cannot determine how much it takes to finance the maintenance of something as uncomplicated as an NGV-powered bus deserves to be taken and shot. It's as simple as that.

Role reversals have made the whole thing all the more ridiculous. Now, the Pheu Thai Party, whose members watched and drooled like little puppies when the Samak government attempted to ram through the bus scheme in its extreme version, worth more than Bt100 billion, are now seeing corruption in every step of the way. This, however, makes the Democrats even more awkward after they vowed to fight to death to block the Samak project.

It will be fun if the Democrats end up at the wrong end of a parliamentary censure over the bus plan. Everyone will be reminded of what he or she used to say about this mass transit master plan a year ago. And what Thaksin Shinawatra will ever say about this project alone provides enough incentive to give him another shot at a phone-in.

Today, when the Cabinet is scheduled to give the project another look, it won't decide the future of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Rather, what transpires will tell us quite correctly whether there is a promise in the long run. Soon, we all shall know if the faint white thing at the end of the tunnel is a ray of hope, or headlights of the "buses from hell" (as Thai Post put it) coming at us.