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ophon Saram, the minister for transport and communication, rushed to see Suthep Thaugsuban, the deputy prime minister, late last week at Suvarnabhumi Airport. Suthep had just returned from a tour to the South. Sophon was seeking Suthep's backing for the mother of all deals - the leasing of 4,000 NGV buses worth about Bt67 billion.

All Suthep was required to do was convince Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva that Thailand was badly in need of the NGV bus fleet. If the Democrats were to slam the brakes on this deal, chances were that the coalition partners might find it unviable to continue supporting the government. This might sound like a threat. Sophon is one of the inner-circle members of Newin Chidchob, who controls the up-and-coming Bhum Jai Thai Party.

We do not know exactly how Abhisit has reacted to the NGV bus-fleet project, but he tends to go along with Suthep's suggestions. The NGV bus-leasing project smelled fishy from the outset. It was first introduced during the Samak Sundaravej government. The size of the project, which has seen numerous revisions, is huge.

Economically speaking, it is totally unjustified. But politicians love these kinds of projects because they can skim off them. The Samak Cabinet tried to push it through but to no avail. It was said that after Samak lost his job following a Constitution Court ruling, he sought to make a comeback, and one of the aims was to see to it that the NGV bus-leasing project got through the Cabinet.

The project did not see daylight during the Somchai Wongsawat government either because Newin, and then prime minister Somchai, were not on good terms. Newin would have liked either Samak or Surapong Suebwonglee as prime minister, but Thaksin Shinawatra and his allies threw their support behind Somchai, Thaksin's brother in law. Cracks between Newin and Thaksin widened after that episode, culminating in Newin defecting to support the Democrats to form a new government in December last year.

Now Abhisit is inheriting this daunting bus-leasing project, which, apart from the rice and other commodity subsidy programmes, the 3G telecom and airport projects, can make or break his fragile coalition government.

If this bus-leasing project does not see the light of day, we can expect the coalition partners to back-stab the government in return. Sophon has signalled to Suthep that if the Democrat-led government would like continued support from coalition partners, it must approve the bus-leasing project.

Again, Abhisit is caught in a do-or-die situation. If he goes along and approves the bus-leasing project, he might hope to cling on to power for another long breath.

If he kills the project, the coalition partners will go after him by voting down any legislation, not to mention the budget bill for fiscal 2010 due for a vote in the middle of June, and bringing down the entire government in the process.

If Abhisit lets the Cabinet approve the project, his premiership will be tarnished and the future of the Democrat Party will be at risk because the general public will perceive it as the Democrats selling their soul for the sake of hanging on to power.

Inside the Democrat Party, there is a sense of uneasiness and a lack of direction. The young Turks within the party rank and file are unhappy with Abhisit's leadership, which depends considerably on Suthep's tutelage. When Deputy Prime Minister Korbsak Sabhavasu ran into trouble with Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai over the scandal surrounding the rice-subsidy programme, Abhisit failed to back Korbsak. Instead, he turned to Suthep to mediate the conflict.

Technically, the rice-subsidy programme is very complicated. Suthep does not have any knowledge or background about this programme. But all Abhisit wanted to see was that the Democrats and the coalition partners could continue to coexist during this turbulent time.

Even Chuan Leekpai and Banyat Bantadtarn, the senior members of the Democrat Party, are beginning to sense that the Democrats are drifting away. It is not clear whether Abhisit is turning to Chuan for guidance.

Chuan has been nurturing Abhisit all along so that Abhisit could become his successor. Abhisit's rhetoric follows Chuan's style. But it is Suthep who has done all the dirty work to support Abhisit's leadership and eventual premiership. Suthep is also churning out financial support to the party and the MPs.

The future of the Democrats and Abhisit's premiership is at a crossroads. If Abhisit fails to handle the situation well, we can expect to see several dozen MPs from the Democrats defecting to join Sondhi Limthongkul's new party in the next election.

By that time, it would be a duel between the PAD's party - under Sondhi's leadership - against the Newin-controlled Bhum Jai Thai, rather than the traditional rivalry between the Democrats and the Pheu Thai.