Those 'green shoots' are rising from a U-shaped pit

MR Pridiyathorn Devakula's contention is irrefutable - the world's economic recovery is not attainable without demand-led impetus.

However, I would like to share my thought: the recent rise is more reflected from the belief that we have almost reached the bottom and it is not that of recovery.

This belief is supported by many leading economists, one of whom is Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.

Any educated investor should know that economic recovery is time-consuming and it is universally known that once the bottom is reached, the recovery will be a U-shaped one, not a V-shape.

The stretch of the U can be as long as four years as in the case of our self-ignited recession in 1997.

The longest in history was the 1929-1932 Depression in which the recovery to the old price index was in 1950.

However, that longevity was due to the archaic belief of the budgetary economy rather than one based on the modern Keynesian stimulus packages.

Under the current scenario, it is good to know, with a degree of certainty, that a bottom is near and it is not bottomless.

This is a good time to collect cheap stocks by buying when bad news strikes, and wait for recovery similar to the one in 2003.

SONGDEJ PRADITSMANONT

BANGKOK

Asia should not depend on China for recovery

Re: Stock exchange optimism not grounded in reality, Opinion, June 1

Kudos to MR Pridiyathorn Devakula for questioning the belief, rife among both Thai stock exchange investors and the authorities concerned, that the world economy will recover soon. These optimists should be cautious. Despite its large consumer base of 3.5 billion people, Asia will remain an export-based machine for the next several years. China will not be able to bring Asia out of the economic doldrums this time … period. China saw its early economy recover because it has adopted a timeworn stimulus formula: huge infrastructure spending to provide jobs for its people. The Asia giant did this in the hope that the US economy will recover soon.

Most of China's manufactured goods are for export and its largest export markets, the US and the EU, are not showing any signs of real recovery.

Some leaders and economists are trying to paint a rosy picture for us all: President Obama talked about "glimmers of hope"; US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke coined a new phrase when he said he saw the "green shoots" of economic revival already.

Just don't believe them until you see the real thing.

CHAVALIT VAN

CHIANG MAI

Fight against smoking: a hypocritical endeavour?

It is good to see that the government is pushing through an anti-smoking campaign. Thailand is one of the world leaders in the campaign thanks to all the huge quantities of cigarettes confiscated by the Customs Department.

These are the correct steps, but when will Thailand take steps to stop the biggest producer of cigarettes - the 100 per cent government-owned Thai Tobacco Monopoly?

It is good that on the one side the government is preaching the sermon against smoking, but on the other hand, it is the largest producer of cigarettes in Thailand.

Sounds a bit like a Catch-22 situation.

TOM

BANGKOK

Punishment for violating illegal conditions?

Regarding Aung San Suu Kyi. It is strange that no one appears to have asked the obvious question: How can there be legal consequences for breaching the terms of an illegal detention?

GEORGE CUPPAIDGE

KANCHANABURI