
Other liquid dairy products include evaporated milk, flavoured milk, sweetened condensed milk, baby and toddler milk.
The forecast is contained in the Tetra Pak Dairy Index, a new biannual report on consumption trends in the dairy industry that is designed to help dairy producers identify opportunities for growth.
According to the Tetra Pak Dairy Index, in 2008, global consumption of liquid dairy products, excluding soy and dairy alternatives, reached a record high of 258 billion litres. This marks a worldwide increase of 1.6 per cent over 2007 - an additional 4 billion litres.
Over the past four years, global consumption of milk and other liquid dairy products has grown by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4 per cent, despite a sharp spike in prices over the past two years, which saw milk prices increase by up to 75 per cent in some markets before stabilising in late 2008.
Dennis Jönsson, president and CEO of the Tetra Pak Group, said milk is a basic food staple, which is considered part of a healthy and nutritious diet for all ages all around the world. The group expects two trends to continue to drive global milk consumption over the next three years: continued growth in emerging markets and a shift toward consuming more packaged milk. Packaged milk continues to grow, based primarily on health and safety concerns and also a desire for more convenience to suit busier, more mobile lifestyles.
Leading much of the growth in the global dairy industry - 95.8 per cent over the past four years - are emerging markets, such as India, Pakistan, China and the Middle East. These markets are experiencing fast growth in the consumption of milk and other liquid dairy products based on growing populations, rising household incomes, new dietary trends and increased awareness and availability of dairy products. For example, from 2005 though 2008, consumption of liquid dairy products in China has grown by a CAGR of 13.4 per cent, reaching a record high of 27 billion litres in 2008. This number increases to 39.4 billion litres when including soy and dairy alternatives such as rice, nut, grain and seed-based milks.
Another factor driving growth, particularly in emerging markets, is a fundamental shift in the way liquid dairy products are packaged and consumed. From 2005 to 2008 the global market share of unpackaged milk declined by 1.8 per cent. During the same time period, the global market share of ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk (milk which can be shipped and stored before opening without requiring either refrigeration or preservatives) increased by 3.2 per cent.
Tetra Pak estimates that global consumption of UHT milk will grow at a CAGR of 5.2 per cent between now and 2012, reaching more than 70 billion litres by 2012. In fact, consumption of packaged milk and other liquid dairy products is growing faster than the entire liquid dairy category, and is expected to reach more than 72 per cent of total global consumption by 2012.