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Some merchants from the total of 17 have threatened to sue the government now that they can't take delivery of the rice they have bid for from the Public Warehouse Organisation, an agency under the regulatory oversight of the Commerce Ministry. Abhisit has rejected an attempt by Porntiva Nakasai, the commerce minister, to secure Cabinet approval to sell the rice to the exporters.

On Wednesday, Abhisit assigned Suthep Thaugsuban, a deputy prime minister, to mediate in a conflict between Korbsak Sabhavasu, also a deputy prime minister, and Porntiva over how the government should release the rice on to the market. Korbsak, who is in charge of economic affairs, is still fuming that Abhisit has gone over his head to involve Suthep, who is in charge of security affairs. We all know that Porntiva is a nominee for Somsak Thepsuthin, who is now realigning his political base with the Bhum Jai Thai Party, controlled by Newin Chidchob.

At issue is the way in which the rice stocks - owned by the government through its price-shoring subsidy programme - are to be released onto the market. The government has so far not come out with a straight way to reveal the rice stock under the subsidy programme in its warehouses. The figure ranges between 2.2 million tonnes to 2.6 million tonnes. During the previous government, politicians allowed the Public Warehouse Organisation to assume responsibility for the rice trade by sending their own people to run this agency.

The merchants are shadow boxing. Many of them have dubious backgrounds, with links to politicians. They have bid for the rice at around Bt14,500 per tonne. They claim that ships are anchored at the docks ready to take delivery of the rice for export. If the government fails to deliver the rice to them, they stand to face losses or will default on their obligations. Rumours in the rice industry have it that these exporters have paid under-the-table money amounting to more than Bt2 billion to politicians.

You can predict Suthep's style. After his intervention, there will be an about-face compromise. The Commerce Ministry will appoint the Department of Foreign Trade, rather than the Public Warehouse Organisation, to handle the release of the rice stocks. Porntiva will still have control over the Department of Foreign Trade.

Korbsak can walk away with a certain level of satisfaction because he would like to end the influence of the Public Warehouse Organisation.

This rice scheme appears not to have been transparent from the outset, and Abhisit should have cancelled the bidding. However, doing so now would certainly create complications because the exporters have already paid out the tea money. More importantly, Abhisit's relationship with the coalition partners would sour further. Already, the stability of his government is very shaky. On top of this, there are problems in all the crop schemes, not to mention the public bus project and other mega-projects.

The smell of corruption is thick in the air.

But Abhisit can't raise a finger against any one of them directly because the coalition partners could go after him at any time. Also, his government is going broke. It now needs to borrow Bt800 billion - half of which is being introduced through an executive decree and the other half through a normal legislative act - to shore up investment needs. The borrowing is also needed to fill a big hole in the budget deficit, which might exceed Bt300 billion in fiscal year 2010.

The Constitution Court is now deliberating on the Bt400-billion borrowing package presented to Parliament as an executive decree. Chances are high that the Court might vote against the government, whose decree has been blocked by the opposition Pheu Thai Party. If the Constitution Court rules against the government, then the administration will have to resubmit the borrowing package through Parliament again via a legislative act. Doing so would require it to give all the details of the projects under the borrowing package.

It will be a rough ride for Abhisit from now on. He will have to fight for every project or every policy to get things done. The point is whether he will be doing so to safeguard his premiership or to defend the integrity of his government.