• 
• 
• 

Will the PAD party, tentatively called "Candle of Dharma", be a modern-day Palang Dharma? That Chamlong Srimuang is one of the leading candidates to head the new party, however, is just one of many current circumstances that are oddly similar to those in the past.

In both cases, we have a backdrop of political turmoil, a peculiar marriage between notorious politicians and military leaders allegedly trying to hold on to power after a coup, and a Democrat Party that, by staying aloof, manages to get a major windfall.

Palang Dharma was registered in 1989 but shot to prominence in 1992 when it swept all but three House seats in Bangkok. Chamlong, who was the party's leader at the time, then led a popular uprising against the military (that ended in bloodshed) and afterwards became a reluctant ally of the Democrats. The friends soon turned to foes, and a Palang Dharma pullout led to the collapse of a Democrat-led government.

If this part of history is anything to go by, Candle of Dharma is meant to be the Democrats' fiercest rival, although they may start off as pals technically. After all, if Chamlong was bitter after the May 1992 bloodbath at seeing the premiership fall into the hands of then Democrat leader Chuan Leekpai, the PAD can be forgiven if it starts to view Abhisit Vejjajiva as an opportunist.

In last year's election, many PAD followers were already voting Democrat with clenched jaws. Now that they will have a party of their own, the reluctance at forming a relationship with the Democrats will turn into estrangement. And with the two parties' political bases set to overlap, their common enemy, the Pheu Thai Party, will be uncorking the champagne the moment the PAD members vote to establish the new party.

Basically, here we have two friends who have joined hands to knock out a big rival, only to fall in love with the same woman - and neither will give her up. The love-hate triangle of the Democrats, Pheu Thai and Candle of Dharma will be very interesting and could lead to anything, especially with the Bhum Jai Thai Party lurking nearby.

Observers are divided over how big the new party will be. Some, amazed by the spectacular show of force at the PAD's recent convention, foresee a Palang Dharma-style phenomenon. They believe that if the new party manages to attract enough "professional defectors", it could even challenge the Democrats in size.

Others expect the new party to run into geographical stumbling blocks. Unlike Pheu Thai and the Democrats, its followers, although considerably huge in number, seem relatively scattered rather than congregated. This means that while the party will fare well in party-list balloting, it will face big disadvantages in constituency elections. According to this school of thought, Candle of Dharma won't be able to draw many defectors and should be content if it ends up being a medium-sized party.

Palang Dharma boasted 47 MPs at its peak. It used that number as great leverage in scuffles with both allies and enemies, but never really had a chance to push for its proclaimed agenda of political righteousness. A pullout from a Democrat coalition government following a Phuket land reform scandal in 1995 made the administration crumble, but that was the only real ideological mark that Palang Dharma left before fading away very fast.

Palang Dharma's lowest point was when it won just one House seat after being abandoned by Thaksin Shinawatra, who took over the party from Chamlong only to ditch it spectacularly after just one year. The party was then dissolved and its members sought refuge in any other party that opened its door to them, regardless of ideology.

Now, it's Chamlong joining forces with Sondhi Limthongkul. One has failed in parliamentary politics and the other only has "street" experiences. The big question, however, is not how unorthodox Candle of Dharma will be, but whether the new party which is talking "new politics" can resist the gravity of the old one. If the PAD fails, soon we will be revisiting the old days when "numbers" dictated everything and friends and foes were divided by a very thin line that was crossed back and forth for fun.