Will abhisit have the courage to run a minority government?

The Democrat Party held its own conference at Samui Island over the weekend to assess the latest political situation and determine a course for its future. It was obvious to all that the tenure of this government would not last beyond the fourth quarter of this year. Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, may take a decisive step to run a minority government as cracks in the coalition government have been widening.

His relationship with the coalition partners appears to have reached a point of no return. It is a matter of time before Abhisit cuts his ties with the coalition amid rising tension of money politics. By doing so, he might have to boot out some coalition members from the Cabinet and appoint Democrats to the Cabinet seats. Then he would wait for government to take its natural course and collapse before dissolving the National Assembly and setting a date for a snap election.

As caretaker prime minister, Abhisit hopes to have some control over the shaky political situation.

The relationship between the Democrats and the coalition partners is nearing showdown, coming less than six months after the Democrat-led government assumed office. The longer the Democrats stay with their coalition partners, the more damage to their political future as they are forced to make endless political compromises to keep the government going.

The Democrats have little control over the economic Cabinet since most portfolios have gone to the coalition partners, from commerce, agriculture, transport, industry to the interior portfolios. The Democrats might control the finance portfolios, but the budget spending power goes to the coalition partners. The Democrats took the bait to form the coalition government because they had been in readiness since 2001. Since they have only little over 160 seats, they're in no position now to call the shots in the Cabinet line-up.

The Newin Chidchob faction, which played a key role in bringing the Democrat-led government into being, still holds the edge. There's a joke in the political circles: "Hey, what's the point of sending our kids to Oxford when the two Oxford alumni [Abhisit and Korn Chatikavanij, the finance minister] have to take orders from a graduate from a teachers' college in Buriram |[Newin]."

A high-ranking Democrat, who asked not to be named, said a House dissolution is expected after New Year when the 2010 Budget Bill is passed, and the Democrat government succeeds in pushing through the Bt800 billion loan package to stimulate the economy.

But it remains unclear whether these bills can be passed in Parliament as the political situation is so precarious.

The Democrats have been uncomfortable with the work of Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai, and worried about transparency in the 4,000 NGV buses leasing plan proposed by Transport Minister Sophon Saram, part of the Newin faction. The loan package would go to serving the Newin faction. Corruption in the rice scheme and other commodities is rampant. The Newin faction has also taken control of Thai Airways International. Other mega-projects are on the menu for this politicians' buffet.

Abhisit has been in a precarious position since the Songkran turmoil, in which he was forced to postpone the Asean Summit in Pattaya.

Subsequently, he almost got killed by an angry mob, instigated by the red- shirt protesters, inside the Interior Ministry. The political turmoil was caused by some key members in the coalition government in the hopes of creating a sudden political change.

Key figures in the police, the military, the coalition partners as well as Thaksin Shinawatra and the red-shirt protesters do not want Abhisit to stay in power for too long.

Given this trouble, Abhisit may have to take the hard decision to safeguard his integrity or to hang on to his pointless premiership. Abhisit is a good person, a clean and honest politician with good knowledge. But he lacks the experience of a political veteran to weather one of the worst crises in modern Thai history. Abhisit has landed the premiership at a wrong time when the Democrats, due to their relatively small parliamentary representation, do not have any political bargaining.

If Abhisit decides to safeguard his integrity rather than hang on to the premiership for the sake of serving as prime minister, he will in due time run a minority government. This means he would have to kick out the coalition partners, who would then retaliate by voting down any bills sent to the National Assembly. But Abhisit would still hope to retain the advantage by serving as caretaker prime minister in a House dissolution.

In the next election, we'll see a fierce battle between a new political party of the People's Alliance for Democracy, the Bhumjai Thai Party under the mastermind of Newin, the Pheu Thai Party of the Shinawatras and the Democrats. We'll have to see whether the Democrats can regroup themselves again or whether they will risk seeing a break away of a faction inside the party.