Key tests loom for PM

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will experience a peculiar political environment next month, when the activities of yellow- and red shirt groups could be just distractions compared with the increasingly heavy burden of keeping his coalition allies happy.

There will be red and yellow gatherings. The People's Alliance for Democracy is set to hold a convention this week-end to determine its future course.

The Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship plans to hold a demonstration around the third week of June to try to regather its strength. Whatever happens at the two events, Abhisit most likely will have to worry about it later.

Two other dates on the political calendar must be bothering him a lot more. At the end of this month, the National Anti-Corruption Commission is expected to make a decision on the Preah Vihear Temple controversy.

The issue is "old karma" from the Samak government, but a "guilty" ruling would practically kick five ministers out of the Abhisit Cabinet - namely Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart, ICT Minister Ranongruk Suwanchawee, Deputy Finance Minister Pradit Pataraprasit, Transport Minister Sophon Saram and Interior Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul.

That would require a major Cabinet reshuffle. Although the Democrats wouldn't be affect-ed by changes, Abhisit could still be in the eye of the storm. There would be intense lobbying, social pressure for decent replacements, and definitely charges that the new faces are simply nominees. Heartbroken MPs - those not selected for senior posts - would rock the boat and a lot of dirty linen might be washed in public.

Coalition politics dictates the prime minister refrain from interfering with Cabinet nomi-nations by other parties. Years of virtual "one-party" government have almost made us fo-get how Cabinet reshuffles involving lesser coalition par-ties can destabilise a prime minister and his administra-tion.

Abhisit will be caught in between the old tradition of non-interference and the pressing need to do away with the "nominee" system when the country requires qualified ministers more than ever.

Then on June 2, the Cabinet is due to reconsider the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority's Bt70 billion master plan. Abhisit, sensing the kind of trouble it could bring, ordered a review. It's doubtful he can buy any more time and sooner rather than later the Cabinet will have to tell the increasingly restless Bhum Jai Thai Party which controls the ministry whether the project will go ahead.

It sounds very much like the good old days, doesn't it?