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Khamnoon Sithisamarn, a senator, and Suriyasai Katasila, a second-generation PAD leader, appeared on ASTV this week to give a clue. It was not exactly a clue, as they both came out to support Sondhi Limthongkul as head of the party.

Since the assassination attempt against him on April 17, Sondhi has re-thought his political future. Now he will have to step forward again.

Throughout the course of the PAD's fight against the Thaksin regime, Sondhi told his followers he did not harbour any political ambition. If he were to take up any political office, he would allow anybody to slap his face with a shoe. He declared that his mission was to defend the nation, monarchy and religion.

Sondhi is now abroad, presumably seeking refuge for his own safety and pondering his future. More important, by staying away, he can allow his supporters to determine the future of the PAD without his towering presence.

Most PAD supporters might not want to form a political party. But many believe that it's time to head onto the real political battlefield through a formal process. The PAD made its name through street demonstrations, hoping to initiate political change, but it never brought about its "new politics", and it still remains unclear what the PAD means by the term.

For Sondhi and his core supporters, the old pretext no longer matters after the assassination attempt. They realise that their enemies are everywhere, both those who have lost power and those who are in power. Sondhi started the PAD in November 2005 to take on Thaksin Shinawatra, and it culminated in the coup of September 2006. In the second round, the yellow shirts rallied for 195 days against the Samak and Somchai governments before the Constitution Court ousted the Somchai Cabinet in December. The Democrats and the blue camp (see previous posts) are the beneficiaries of the yellow shirt movement. But the yellow shirts are not an ally of the Democrats or of the blue camp. They only went after Thaksin with a singular aim.

After the Democrats formed the new government, the blue camp, represented by Newin Chidchob, his Bhumjai Thai Party and the military, quietly emerged as a new power. This camp would like to fill the vacuum left since the political meltdown of Thaksin. Since the Democrats will never win an outright majority in Parliament, the blue camp will grow into a new political force, through mergers and acquisitions, in the same mould as the Thai Rak Thai Party earlier this decade.

Apart from having to fight against Thaksin and his red movement, Sondhi has suddenly found new enemies in the blue camp. He believes that some members of the blue camp are the masterminds behind the assassination attempt. Sondhi does not find any inspiration in the Democrats, even though the PAD has given them a chance to shape the country toward "new politics". The Democrats have proved to be useless to the yellow shirts, who now conclude that they have achieved nothing worthwhile.

With this latest political twist, the Democrats have found themselves isolated. The coalition partners - most of whom have red hearts, with some changing to blue - are ready to break away from the government at any time. The Democrats have now lost the support of the yellow shirts, have fought enemies in the reds, and now realise that the blues are breathing down their necks.

With this bleak outlook, Abhisit will find it difficult to survive beyond October this year, much less hang on for the rest of the term until December 2011. Politicians are now jockeying for new political realignments.

In the meantime, the government is broke. It is short of cash for urgent expenditure. The opposition Pheu Thai has succeeded in blocking an emergency bill that would allow the Finance Ministry to borrow Bt400 billion. The Constitution Court will take up this matter for deliberation on June 16, and the government will set June 17-19 for a debate on the 2010 budget.

If the Democrats fizzle out, Suthep Thaugsuban might break away to form his own party or ally with others. He has a few dozen MPs in his pocket.

In a way, the PAD party is a reincarnation of Palang Dharma, headed by Chamlong Srimuang, in the 1990s. Chamlong is a co-leader of the PAD with Sondhi, but he has his own political agenda, which might not necessarily agree with that of Sondhi. Their temperaments and styles are completely different.

The political base of the PAD is the Bangkok middle class and the urban middle class throughout the country. ASTV has become a powerful medium for the yellow shirts in reaching out to rural and more-educated people, many of whom support the yellow-shirt movement because of its maverick political show and content.

Many PAD supporters live in the South, the political stronghold of the Democrats. So it will be interesting to see how the new PAD party and the Democrat Party would win over or maintain support in their overlapping turf.

After Banharn Silapa-archa, Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, practically anybody in Thailand can become prime minister. Who knows if Sondhi might emerge as a new PM? The political situation remains fluid. Anything can happen.