Thailand and Asean sharpen their policy on Burma

After five months in power, the Thai government is coming out of the closet on Burma. During his visit to Burma in March, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya stuck a reconciliatory cord with the junta, focusing on bilateral relations without touching on the plight of Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains under house arrest. His willingness, on behalf of Burma, to enter discussions with the Karen rebels about their taking part in next year's scheduled election, was much criticised here at home. However, the junta's hard-line attitude towards Rohingya asylum seekers over the past few months has toughened the Thai position and subsequently made Thailand realise the junta is serious about settling the issue.

Last week, when push came to shove over Aung San Suu Kyi's health condition and possible continued detention, Kasit immediately urged the junta to end her detention after its current term expires on May 27 and provide her with necessary medical services. His firmer stance was welcomed by Indonesia, Singapore and the international community. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton congratulated him by phone for taking a tougher position.

Growing international outrage over Suu Kyi's condition and the latest criminal charges brought against her have put pressure on the Asean chair to respond and move one step further. With strong support from Indonesia and Singapore, Bangkok thus called for the special meeting in Phuket of Asean senior officials to discuss the Burmese situation.

The draft of the Asean statement was prepared by Indonesia, approved in total by the Asean chair, and was circulated on Monday. The Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Brunei supported the draft. While the Asean new members - Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia - were not as supportive, there was no outright rejection on their part.

Some of the new members view the draft statement as criticism of Burma, and the call for Suu Kyi's release as a violation of the Asean non-intervention principle. These, they fear, would damage the grouping's solidarity. They would also expose differences within Asean - and it is an Asean norm not to wash dirty linen in public.

What did prove to be sensitive for the new members was the contradiction between Burma's behaviour and the terms of the Asean Charter, which has served as a guideline for compliance since December last year. The Charter obliges Asean members to respect human rights and to demonstrate responsibility in protecting the rights of citizens. The draft statement also warned Burma that "failing to do so would only jeopardise the credibility of Asean and obstruct its integration process".

The Asean officials did not reach consensus over the draft, but they agreed that the Thai chair should issue the statement on behalf of Asean as a whole. Although the overall wording of the draft was somewhat soft and non-confrontational, it used the term "grave concern" instead of "deep regret", as appeared in the original Indonesian draft.

It remains to be seen if the Asean reaction this time will have any affect on the ongoing trial of Aung San Suu Kyi at Rangoon's notorious Insein Prison. After the "Saffron Revolution" of September 2007, criticism from Asean failed to soften the junta's treatment of Suu Kyi. Will it make any difference this time?

If the junta continues to ignore its Asean peers, it could create a further divide between the old and new members. But Burma's indifference might also bridge some gaps. In the past three years, differences between Burma and other members over the drafting of the Charter and the terms of reference for the Asean human rights body did not spill out into the open and were not debated internationally. This time around, the "lady" factor and its ripple effects cannot be overlooked. After all, Asean is trying to increase its international profile, especially in regard to the global financial crisis and the influenza outbreak.

In the next few days, Asean will have further opportunity to articulate its stand on Aung San Suu Kyi's condition and the political situation in Burma. Two high-level meetings between Asean and its European partners in Hanoi and Phnom Penh later this week will again highlight this issue. Whatever the outcome of these meetings, they will act as a barometer for Asean's relevancy in the current international setting.