
After experiencing political intrigues that rival conspiracies in Dan Brown books, this is a thankful break. The executive-decree showdown involves the least-complicated issue in politics anywhere in the world: the government's right to spend and borrow, and the opposition's duty to make sure the cash doesn't come and go too easily.
That's why we are hearing all the basic arguments. The Abhisit government is saying that this is urgent and we can't wait, while the opposition is saying that the "urgent" decree is also to facilitate something that is not so urgent. And since the Constitution allows issuance of an executive decree only in the case of an emergency, the Pheu Thai Party believes it is fully entitled to question the decree's justification.
Simply put, the opposition acknowledges an emergency, but insists that this is not a Bt400 billion emergency. While there may be a need for Bt200 billion to keep fiscal reserves from falling ill, requiring another Bt200 billion to create short-term investment projects smacks of a sick boy claiming to be sicker then he is so as to get two days off school instead of one. If that money is really needed, the opposition says, the government should seek it through the normal parliamentary channel, which provides greater transparency and scrutiny.
The government argues that the additional Bt200 billion is aimed at helping to counter the looming unemployment crisis. According to Korn, the number of layoffs in March and April alone were an alarming 140,000. Job creation, he says, is very important and urgent if Thailand is to successfully overcome the crisis. If a boy looked very sick, it would be very stupid of his parents to send him back to school on the suspicion that he might be feigning his illness.
The debate will be short-lived, though, and critics can be forgiven for accusing the Democrats of overreacting somewhat. It would be a bad idea, some say, to sulk and whine while waiting for the Constitution Court's ruling. The executive decree is being forwarded to the court for one reason only - the opposition has requested it, with enough backing according to parliamentary rules. This, therefore, should not obstruct the preparations of a government that plans to go begging.
The chances of the decree being killed by the Constitution Court are very slim. And most observers believe that the court's deliberation will be a quick process. Once the green light is given, Parliament should be the least of the government's concerns.
For every broke man, borrowing money (for the first or second time) is the relatively easy part. People may frown on you or start asking tough questions, but you are likely to get what you ask for. How you spend the cash, however, will determine your future. An ordinary citizen will go bankrupt if he spends unwisely, but a government grappling with one of the biggest loans in the country's history will likely face more painful consequences.
Korn must start worrying more about the potential spenders around him than the opposition and the Constitution Court. The borrowed money is earmarked for the poor, and therefore will be very sacred in political terms, meaning that even a minor case of abuse will have far-reaching repercussions. The Democrats themselves learned it the hard way in 1996, when what initially had looked like a minor land-grabbing scandal put them out of power, paving the way for the arrival of one Thaksin Shinawatra.
This is not to lay a curse on the "job creation projects" or say that I condone corruption, but if the Pheu Thai Party really wants to stand any chance politically, maybe it would be better off letting the government borrow and spend. The legal move is a good blow, but opportunities for a knockout punch should be aplenty with the amount of money involved.