PAD at crossroads

According to informed PAD sources, whether the movement will become a political party depends on two main factors - the immediate political outlook and whether a consensus can be achieved on who leads the party.

Thousands or tens of thousands of PAD members will hold a convention at the Thammasat Rangsit Campus between May 24-25. It remains unclear if or how a resolution on the issue can be forged at the meeting.

The PAD doesn't have a clear representation structure at the provincial or district levels. This means if they decide to call a ballot, the first thing to do is to decide whether it will be a referendum or "representative vote".

"The chance [of becoming a political party] is still 50-50," said one source. Of the top leaders, only Pipop Thongchai wants the PAD to remain what it is - a civil political movement.

But while the other leaders are leaning toward transformation, the question of who will lead the new party is proving to be very sticky. Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang are naturally the first names that come to mind, but both have glaring weak points.

The duo represents extremism, meaning the new party will be able to attract only hardcore fans. Sondhi, in addition, has had financial and legal trouble that could come back to haunt or even doom him. As for Chamlong, his failure as founder of the Palang Dharma Party, which he handed over to Thaksin Shinawatra who then messed it up, is anything but a strong selling point.

Can they pick someone from the "second tier"? This begs the question of who will want to work under Sondhi's or Chamlong's shadow or both.

Another issue to seriously ponder is the fact that the transformation will pit the new party against the Democrats, the PAD's ally, while their common "red" enemies will be able to just sit back and enjoy the show.

"The PAD and the Democrats have similar profiles - they have following in Bangkok and big cities," the source said.

This is why a thorough analysis of the immediate political prospects is important. The PAD, surely, wants to keep or even boost its political leverage, but wouldn't want to make a move that could upset the status quo and strengthen its red foes.

Politics has always been all about timing and taking initiatives. But it has never been more so than now.