More factions emerge to widen the political divide

Speakers read out a nine-point oath asking all parties to the conflict to stop physical or verbal violence and to respect the law as well as other people's rights. They called on feuding parties to find a solution through peaceful means and to stop dragging the monarchy into the conflict, otherwise the country would be doomed.

Joining the parade were Borwornsak Uwanno, secretary-general of the King Prajadhipok Institute, and his deputy Wuthisarn Tanchai; Prime Minister's Office Minister Sathit Wongnongtoey; Senate Speaker Prasobsook Boondech; Thai Journalists' Association President Prasong Lertratanawisut; and singer Ad Carabao.

Is this campaign credible and will it provide a way out for Thai politics, marred by factional rivalries? I have absolutely no faith in any claim of neutrality, or something in-between, during this time of deep political divisions, though a call for a peaceful resolution sounds appealing.

Borwornsak used to serve Thaksin Shinawatra as secretary to the Cabinet before jumping ship ahead of Thaksin's downfall. Sathit was a Democrat and an aide to Suthep Thaugsuban, the deputy prime minister, whose political motif has been rather suspicious of late. Prasobsook, a non-Thaksinite, is an appointed senator representing the judiciary. Prasong is a Matichon journalist, who has been digging the dirt on Thaksin's assets. Ad Carabao, the rock star, is a strong Thaksin supporter.

When these folks come together in the same boat, you aren't quite sure what they are up to because they have been party to the crisis in the first place. Probably, Borwornsak looks upon himself as a neutral who can become a non-partisan premier during this time of divisions.

Initially, we witnessed the yellow-shirt rallies to get rid of Thaksin and his regime. This faction is now preparing its next move after one of its leaders, Sondhi Limthongkul, narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. Then we saw Thaksin regrouping under the red-shirted to try to reclaim power. In the middle of the violence during the Asean Summit in April, we also saw the emergence of the blue-shirted faction, formed by the Phumjai Thai Party and elements in the military, to take advantage of the polarisation. The blue faction and the red camp appear to have struck a secret deal to destroy the Democrat-led government and to force a sudden political change.

This three-way equation has developed into a political deadlock, with the isolation of the Democrats. The white campaign will never be able to provide any resolution, because history shows that political division on this scale can only be overcome by one faction prevailing over the rest by compromise, by coercion or by crude force.

In the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", it took almost a century of civil strife before the conflict among the warlords could be settled. This Chinese historical novel, based upon events in the turbulent years near the end of the Han Dynasty and the Three Kingdoms era, started in 169 AD and ended with the reunification of the land in 280 AD.

Similarly, after the fall of Ayutthaya in 1767, King Taksin established Thon Buri as Siam's new capital and sought independence after the collapse of the power centre in Ayutthaya. King Taksin liberated Siam from the Burmese by defeating their armies at Pho Sam Ton in Ayutthaya. Then he went on to subjugate the Phitsanulok faction, Chao Phra Fang's faction, the Phimai faction, Cambodia, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Sawangkhaburi, Chiang Mai and provinces along the Mekong River, among others, so that they came under Thon Buri's power.

I look upon the current political conflict as a division that has gone beyond compromise. The wounds are deep. The suspicions are high. And the bitterness is grave. With Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva narrowly escaping death at the hands of a red-shirt mob at the Interior Ministry on April 12, and the assassination attempt on Sondhi, I can see that the violence will only get worse.

How can a compromise be reached when two leading figures in the country have faced grave threats to their lives? The red faction is preparing an armed struggle if Jakrapob Penkair's words are to be believed. Thaksin won't stop until he wins this war. The blue faction has resorted to a power play and won't stop until it gets full control of the government. The yellow shirts are preparing to take to the streets if necessary. If not, they will form a new political party called Thien Haeng Tham ("Candle of Dharmma") to contest the next election. Abhisit and the Democrats are at their wits' end as the combination of economic crisis and political crisis grabs them by the throat.

Like all conflicts, it will take time to sort out this modern Thai crisis. In this case, we might see a civil war simmering underground or breaking open onto the streets between now and next year. No faction enjoys an advantage over any other.

The most important thing is that during this turbulent time, you do not bet on the wrong horse.