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The government has finally decided to take a gamble. Still, the lifting of the state of emergency in Bangkok and its suburbs seems to have brought less relief than concern, and suddenly renewed rumblings have been heard from the red-shirt movement. Sounds were heard of a new protest being planned, though they will have to make do with other leaders this time around, because most of the core red-shirt members either are being detained or have fled underground.

Optimists and pessimists will react to this news differently. The latter must be really worried. After all, the problem with the red-shirt movement is that it has fewer leaders than the yellow-shirted People's Alliance for Democracy and the leadership hierarchy is almost non-existent. In fact, there have been claims that the recent violence was not planned but resulted from angry red-clad mobs who didn't know who they should listen to.

A rudderless protest, or one that relies on remote instructions, can easily get out of control. Plus, the state of emergency has been lifted against a backdrop of thinly veiled threats from fugitive red-shirt leader Jakrapob Penkair that the movement will find it difficult to avoid violence in the future. The room for peaceful campaigns, he said, "is getting smaller" every day.

Whether the lifting of the state of emergency will expand that "room" a bit or if it will invariably reignite security trouble will be known sooner rather than later. The government, in announcing its decision, cited among other reasons the opinions of the foreign community. That, according to alarmists, could be doing the right thing for the wrong reason.

The lifting of the state of emergency, by all accounts, should be based on one reason alone: that the government is absolutely certain that all the elements of madness that could easily have doomed Thailand just two weeks ago are now under control. If the government did not base its decision on this, it may live to regret it, the pessimists say. After all, this is no time to worry about "face"; this is the time to put public security above anything else.

The red shirts have the right to assemble, as long as something like a gas truck is not parked in front of a populous community to use as a shield against troops ordered to clear the traffic or civilians caught in the crossfire are not shot in broad daylight. The government is responsible for assuring the public that they will no longer have to endure the trauma they did on Songkran Day.

Much will depend on whether extra measures are handy to replace the state of emergency and whether Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who was reportedly unhappy with both the police and the military during the riots, has been reassured of harmony and discipline in the key agencies. He was lucky that the Songkran crackdown did not result in a major political setback, but he will need Lady Luck again if another major rally turns nasty.

Abhisit also wants the lifting of the emergency decree to show that he is sincere about national reconciliation. With the red-shirt protesters ready to regroup at the first sign they are given, the prime minister's move was both brave and ironic.

The optimists believe this may turn out to be yet another brilliant move by Abhisit. In effect, he has told the protesters that he has kept his part of the bargain and now it's their turn. The movement will be under considerable pressure to be orderly and peaceful. For Abhisit, if new protests turn ugly they will end up hurting his enemies more internationally.

Another factor is Thaksin Shinawatra. Wherever he was when he launched the daily broadsides against the government and the Privy Council, the chances are that he will now have to find a new place to do that if the red-shirt movement manages to hold another rally. And future phone-ins will come under closer international media scrutiny, considering the tragic results of the previous ones.

So the optimists are using analytical methods in judging the decision to lift the state of emergency, whereas the alarmists fear that Thailand's political developments haven't been driven by reason after all. As for the general public, while we are inclined to fear the worst, we can only hope that despite the apparent political advantage Abhisit will gain from this move, it was not the reason why he decided to make it.