String of tough challenges ahead for Abhisit

The young prime minister must take up at least four challenges head-on -healing rifts within Thai society both short-term and long-term, rebuild domestic and international confidence, bringing back millions of tourists, and lay a strong foundation for a healthy and balanced democracy.

The residue of the polarisation of Thai society was quite evident even after peace and order was restored following the Songkran riots.

The assassination attempt on Sondhi Limthongkul, a newspaper tycoon and a leader of the People's Alliance of Democracy, was a clear indication there are undercurrent elements out there that are ready to create havoc instantly.

The Thai public would like to see the lifting of the state of emergency in Bangkok and its vicinity as soon as possible as life has returned to normal. As the government is contemplating on the issue, the assault on Sondhi did not help the situation but further deepened the government's anxiety.

Abhisit should take this opportunity when his leadership is strong and respected to start a two-pronged approach to heal the division. The most important path is to address directly the discontentment at the people's level.

The supporters of the red shirts in the North and Northeast are many. They have been awoken by Thaksin Shinawatra's economic and social policies. Through them, they have been empowered and over the years they have become more organised to wield political strength and electoral power as never before seen.

NON-PARTISAN APPROACH

In approaching these regions, the Abhisit government has to recognise this reality and gradually work together with the people and their organisations at the tambon and village levels. It is one thing to deal with the rural masses directly, but quite another to handle their representatives through elections. The prime minister must be wise to go for the specifics.

During the riots last week, Abhisit managed to send strong signals to protesters that their voices were being heard. Those who wanted to protest peacefully had the right to do so under the constitution. But those who chose to use violence were breaking the law.

Unfortunately, the issues related to rule of law and administration of justice in Thai society is not very well understood by both the law enforcement and the masses. Both groups need to be educated so that they take the rule of law seriously otherwise the notion that there is a double standard will continue to prevail. For instance, interviews with protesters in the past showed that damaging or seizing state properties and hurting officials during protests were considered normal practices to vent off the people's frustration. Like it or not, Abhisit must prosecute key protesters, regardless of preferences, that caused chaos in the past with a non-partisan approach.

If the rural people have a better appreciation of what is going on, there is hope at the end of tunnel that the national reconciliation would be possible in the long run. Much-needed political reforms then can take place meaningfully. At the moment, the rhetoric of political reform is mixed with party interests. For instance, for the Puea Thai Party and Thaksin's supporters, political reforms encompass all proposed changes that would restore Thaksin's influence and reinstate his political cronies. So far, no politician has come out with non-partisan views and platforms.

RESTORE CONFIDENCE

Secondly, Abhisit needs to rebuild domestic and international confidence - all at one. He and his economic teams must come up with financial and fiscal measures to win back trust in the economy. All indicators have already pointed to a negative outcome in terms of gross national product and standards of living. Although the stimulus packages have reached the rural areas, they are still insufficient.

More unemployed persons are heading homes this time around. A stronger social safety net is required. At this point in time, the government must give a big hand.

As far as regional and international confidence is concerned, holding successfully the remaining summits with the Asean leaders and their dialogue partners from China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand would be extremely important. To do so, all regional and international stakeholders must help.

When the prime minister briefed Bangkok-based diplomats last week, he reaffirmed Thailand's chairmanship and its intention to hold the remaining summits, especially the postponed Pattaya summit.

The speed with which East Asian leaders agree to the new summit dates would be a real barometer of Abhisit's leadership and the confidence in the country.

If their leaders agree to come, tourists from these countries, which comprise the bulk of some 10 million tourists visiting Thailand annually, will also come back. When the tourists' confidence returns, other positive developments will follow suit, including foreign investment and business confidence.

Finally, Abhisit's legacy will rest on how much he can achieve in laying a strong foundation for a healthy, balanced and workable democracy in the weeks and months to come. Obviously, some time in the future, he needs to return the power to the people in a general election but he does not have to do it now. His top priority as outlined above is clear and he must zero in on economic recovery and political stability.

Thailand needs desperately a new political balance so that all the country's energy in various sectors can be harnessed for creative and constructive national purposes and regional community building efforts. Through these combined efforts, Thailand could again perform par excellence and become a real democracy.