Beating Thaksin means winning hearts, minds of the poor

The young premier, who enjoys the support of the elite and urban middle class, garnered a lot of sympathy in the pitched battle with the protesters.

The elite and media activists have managed to paint a bad picture of the protesters under the Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship (DAAD), due to their links with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

To the people of Bangkok and the media, the DAAD followers are nothing but Thaksin lackeys who took to the street to topple Abhisit Vejjajiva's government in order to bring their boss Thaksin back into power.

Such a perception is wrong. Of course, Thaksin was in the battle, but it is not his war.

The military coup - apparently supported by the Democrats and a reactionary group called the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - that ousted Thaksin from the prime minister's office on September 19, 2006 was the beginning of the war.

Thaksin's regime, as alleged by the PAD and the coup-makers, had abused its power and was involved in many corruption cases. It is true the deposed prime minister used his absolute authority to benefit his family and cronies, whose interests ran against the elite in society.

Unfortunately, bringing down Thaksin by a military coup is unjustifiable and undemocratic.

The judicial activists who unseated Thaksin's proxies in the previous two governments of Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat are also questionable.

The coup and the judicial activists failed to build a consensus among the lower classes, notably in the provinces and the rural areas, who gained a lot from Thaksin's populist policies.

Thaksin has convinced the poor that the elite used such an undemocratic means to depose him and install their own groups, represented by the Democrat's Abhisit, into power.

Thaksin's link to the poor in the provinces and the rural areas is real and strong. Although the junta and the Democrats have made several attempts to destroy such connections and rebrand Thaksin's populist projects, the web of allegiances remains.

One villager in the northeastern province of Si Sa Ket says that the poor miss Thaksin very much, especially now that the country is reeling from an economic crisis. Despite realising the impact of the global financial crisis on Thailand, the poor in Si Sa Ket believe only Thaksin can save the economy.

They are not very convinced by Abhit's impeccable educational credentials - a degree in political economy from Oxford University - since the young premier offered nothing to capture their imagination, but rather simply mimicked Thaksin's projects.

Billionaire Thaksin has proved he can inject money into the villages whenever the villagers want it, while Abhisit has told the country his government must borrow from abroad.

In the eyes of the poor, a leader who incurs debt for the country is a burden-maker, not a good leader.

Thaksin is corrupt, one says. Corruption by those in power is nothing strange for Thailand, another one argues.

For those in the lower strata of society, all politicians are corrupt. With or without Thaksin, Thailand has never been free from corruption, another villager in Si Sa Ket says, adding: "But Thaksin knew how to divert resources to the poor."

Many villagers in Si Sa Ket say they would join any street demonstration, if called again, to fight against Abhisit's government.

The villagers upcountry understand that Thaksin will fight for the good of the poor, while Abhisit stands for the elite and urban middle class in the capital.

The fighting might not look like a class struggle, but the poor take Thaksin as their representative in the conflict. It is a war to uplift their standard of living as well as their social status.

Cracking down on Thaksin's network alone is not the right strategy to win the war. To beat Thaksin, Abhisit and the Democrats need to prove in front of the poor that they also side with them rather than only represent the elite.

Abhisit needs to show them he is not the elite's choice, but rather the prime minister of all the people.

If he managed to win the hearts and minds of the poor, the British-born member of the elite class could easily defeat Thaksin.