Govt wins the battle, but has it won the war?

Why did the red shirts decide to wave the white flag after 20 days of battle? Has their real leader, ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, conceded the war? Or is it only a break before regrouping for the next round?

Perhaps it really is as simple as leader Veera Musigapong telling the crowd that the voluntary dispersal was not a defeat of the red-shirt movement, but rather aimed at protecting the lives of the protesters.

A source with the red-shirt protest said the leaders had been of different opinions.

While Veera wanted to rally at strongholds that would least trouble people, Jakrapob Penkair wanted this to be an ultimate showdown. From this rift stemmed certain failures over the past few days, the source said.

Apart from that, some leaders feared a "third party" might add fuel to the fire until it spun out of control.

Obviously, the unrest in Bangkok caused by the pro-Thaksin supporters would lead to a stalemate, and if it continued, dispersal by security agencies and damage could not be avoided.

In fact, the red shirts have only themselves to blame, as they failed to control their protesters. Despite providing full facilities for them at the main rally site in Bangkok, they proved difficult to manage, coming as they did from different provinces and with different leaders. This was especially evident when they mobbed the Interior Ministry on Sunday and harshly attacked vehicles belonging to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, injuring his secretary-general, Niphon Phromphan, and one of the PM's main security personnel.

"We admit that was a mistake, Suporn Atthawong, one of our leaders, leading the protesters there and attacking Niphon, who everyone knows is an 'important' person. We were seen as violence-loving maniacs," one red-shirt leader said.

The riot in the capital on Songkran Day, with gas trucks seized, buses burning, bombs thrown, guns fired at people and two deaths, made innocent people furious with the protesters, and they came out against them. For example, the residents around Nang Lerng Market and in the Din Daeng flats turned out in droves to fight the protesters.

Their violent behaviour backfiring on them, the red shirts became "criminals" and not the "heroes" their real leader, Thaksin, always claimed them to be. Fugitive Thaksin has suddenly become detested by the innocent victims.

The government seems to have learned a lesson from last year's mistakes. After losing Saturday's battle in Pattaya, which led to the government cancelling the 16-nation Asean Summit, they have certainly won this round.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban was blamed for the Pattaya debacle, as it was he who made the bad decision to use Newin Chidchob. Newin is allegedly the one behind the blue shirts, who clashed with the red shirts in Pattaya.

But Suthep redeemed himself this time. He was the man who coordinated with relevant agencies to tackle the Bangkok riot. Amid speculation the military and police were not on the government's side, Suthep revamped his strategy by bringing the military loyalty closer to Abhisit.

For security reasons, the premier was taken to the First Infantry Regiment, residence of Army chief Anupong Paochinda. The closer the premier was to the Army chief, the safer he was from the angry mob and any threat of a coup attempt.

The plan for the military to disperse the protesters began with clearing up all blocked routes. Troops were sent to the sites to drive the protesters back to their only base in front of Government House. This allowed the troops to control the situation easily, as the protesters would be boxed into only one location that was of limited space.

The final step was to disperse the protesters. They opted to do this in the daytime, so as to prevent any mistakes and chaos. Fortunately, the country escaped further damage when the protesters chose to disperse rather than fight.

However, the government still cannot feel relieved, because there is as yet no guarantee the protesters have really ended their protest. So the government has retained the state of emergency for the greater Bangkok area.

"We're afraid more protesters returning from celebrating Songkran upcountry may join in a new round of protest in Bangkok," a government source said.

Since Thaksin is not someone who will easily surrender, all concerned should be well aware that he could sooner or later strike back.