Thai leadership under scrutiny

When Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced on Saturday the postponement of the summit by two to three months, it was obvious it would be a long time before Thailand would host another meeting. Bangkok had waited 14 years to host the second Asean Summit.

After the summit was postponed from December last year due to political turmoil, Thailand tried repeatedly to reschedule an earlier summit but failed due to the conflicting time-tables of East Asian leaders. Hence, to organise another Asean+3 or Asean+6 summit involving 16 leaders within the next two months would be extremely difficult, if not impossible.

In an interview with The Nation yesterday, Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan said the best course Thailand can take is to liaise with the Asean Coordinating Council (ACC), a new body comprising foreign ministers of Asean states, and the Jakarta-based Asean Secretariat to work out future plans. He said the next few weeks would be crucial.

The sudden postponement of the summit has further complicated the already tight schedules of Asean-related meetings and dialogue partners. Under the Asean Charter, the grouping's leaders are scheduled to hold two summits annually.

The first, which has not been held so far, will be informal in nature with discussion on issues related to Asean. The second (the 15th Asean Summit) will be a formal session, with a series of bilateral and collective meetings with East Asian countries.

It is likely the informal summit will be carried over to next year under the chairmanship of Vietnam, which will take over in January 2010. If Thailand is unable to host the next Asean Summit, it is likely that Vietnam will be handed the chairmanship.

One senior diplomat from Asean, who asked for anonymity, said the Abhisit government's top priority is to get its house in order and restore the rule of law before it can make any commitment to host the next summit. "Once bitten twice shy," he said.

The Asean foreign ministerial meeting in July will be an indication if the grouping's confidence in Thailand has been restored. "If some Asean foreign ministers do not come to the July meeting, then there could be problems," said the diplomat.

The July meeting has several meetings back to back to the Asean ministerial meeting. The most important is the 27-member region-wide security conference, known as the Asean Regional Forum. The break-in by the red-shirted protesters at the summit venue has raised concerns among the non-Asean participants, especially those from the US and EU.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has told Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya that she would attend the ARF and the post-ministerial meeting with Asean foreign ministers. Kasit is scheduled to visit the US later this month.

He said it is imperative the Thai government continue to brief Asean colleagues and their dialogue partners about the internal developments in Thailand. "It is part of a confidence building measure."

 The Thai government said that before the next summit, Asean will have established by October its human rights body following the completion and approval of the terms of reference