A telling blow has been delivered to country and premier

The red-shirts were able to break into the Royal Cliff, which is in the far pocket of South Pattaya, because the police and the military were standing idly by, practising paak waa taa khayip ("saying one thing but gesturing otherwise") to let the red-shirts storm the venue and prevent the summit from taking place altogether.

The damage to Thailand is incalculable; the damage to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is irreparable.

Most analysts had expected the red-shirts to fade away before Songkran Day because the rallies could hardly last beyond Songkran, when most Thais return home for the New Year holiday, and it would be difficult to regroup afterwards.

But they were determined to go in for the kill. After failing with the false assassination plot against Privy Councillor Chanchai Likhitjitha, red-shirt strategy could only move into a bigger arena by bringing the Asean+3 Summit into the equation. If the red-shirt masterminds could wreak havoc there, they could render Abhisit obsolete.

Abhisit's embryonic leadership would be called into question. He would not be in charge because he could not provide security to the foreign leaders and organise a successful summit.

So Abhisit has to go. That's what Thai politics is all about.

Abhisit enjoyed a rather good start. He chaired the Asean Summit in Hua Hin. He went on to cement ties with the UK by meeting Gordon Brown in London. He joined the G-20 Summit leaders in London shortly afterwards to air Asean's stand on the global financial crisis. Back in Thailand, he prepared to chair the Asean+3 Summit in Pattaya, which was to announce huge packages to stimulate Asia's economic growth. This event had been postponed from December and is now postponed again.

The Japanese have been the most sensitive about the security of their leader. When they learned that the Thai authorities wanted to hold the summit in Phuket, they were not happy. Since Phuket is an island, it would be difficult to move the Japanese leadership and 100-strong press corps out in the event of an airport ambush by the red-shirts.

The Japanese authorities were more comfortable with the Pattaya venue. Bangkok was out of the question because the red-shirts would seal off Government House and any major venue in the five-star hotels or convention halls.

Still, hell broke loose in Pattaya. The plane carrying Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had yet to land in Thailand when it had to be diverted because of the cancellation of the summit.

The red-shirts really would like the yellow-shirts to come out for a final dual or a classic civil war. They all want to create a bloody situation that will lead to a coup.

Already, the blue-shirts have formed in Pattaya, trying in vain to block the red-shirts and save the summit. They are believed to be backed by Newin Chidchob. The yellow-shirts are watching with anxiety.

It is now clear that the police are siding with the red-shirts. The military is divided.

After cancelling the summit at noon, Abhisit declared a state of emergency in Pattaya and Chon Buri, an exact replay of the Samak government and the Somchai government, which declared futile states of emergency in Bangkok and the airports respectively.

The red-shirts quickly declared victory and retreated to Bangkok, where they sought to consolidate their position at Government House.

Rumour has it that the coalition partners may want Abhisit out soon. The candidate to replace him is General Prawit Wongsuwan, the interior minister. The Phumjai Thai Party under Newin Chidchob now backs Prawit.

We shall see how the Democrats navigate this turmoil. Can Abhisit hang onto his premiership now that those around him - indeed those very close to him - are drawing their knives?