Round One goes to the government, sort of

Their time is too short and their goal too high, if not ambiguous. It took the People's Alliance for Democracy months to accomplish relatively easier goals, even with direct or indirect help from the military and the courts. But just a few days into its campaign, the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship went for broke despite the fact that one of its key demands had to do with an institution closest to the Thai monarchy.

"They are pushing for a much more difficult goal while having a much lesser time," said PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila. The other DAAD goal is to force government resignation or House dissolution. This is similar to what the PAD tried to achieve in its months-long, sometimes turbulent stand-off with two pro-Thaksin administrations.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, in his TV address to the nation Thursday evening, admitted that about 100,000 people joined the DAAD campaign at its peak on Wednesday. But he claimed the numbers dwindled "by 70 per cent" on Thursday.

Whether or not the numeral decline had to do with some controversial activities is uncertain. But protest leaders on Thursday evening repeatedly declared allegiance to the monarchy and asked demonstrators to watch out for infiltrators who could caused public misunderstading by committing acts deemed offensive to the highest institution.

Despite making hard efforts to differentiate between the monarchy and the Privy Council, the DAAD must have found that to many Thais, the line between the two institutions is very thin indeed. And it didn't help the DAAD that the big message splashed across its main stage at the Government House rally site screamed: "Mandarins get out!" (Ammart ok pai!).

The gathering at the Victory Monument, while not as damaging as the PAD's siege of the Suvarnabhumi Airport, proved to be very unpopular. Public outcry was such that, in his Thursday address to the red-shirted protesters, Thaksin Shinawatra tried to distance the whole movement from the turmoil. The taxi drivers who parked their vehicles to block traffic in the area, he said, were only trying to help and acting on their own.

The red-shirted demonstrators occupying the Victory Monument were retreating Friday evening to the Government House rally site. Many taxi drivers were said to be heading to Pattaya, underlining a shift in the DAAD's immediate targets.

The summit between Asean leaders and their dialogue partners will now have added significance. It could become another forum for Abhisit to accumulate international charisma or the DAAD could seize the opportunity to embarrass him. Thursday's demonstration at the Royal Cliff Beach Resort was lacklustre to say the least, and, having retreated from the hotel to a nearby mega-store, the DAAD protesters will have their last chance on Saturday to spoil Abhisit's international party.

The prime minister was another reason why the red-shirted campaign couldn't quite explode into something big enough to force an upheaval. His calm and eloquent response to Thursday's turmoil and provocation was the last thing the DAAD needed. So far, the government has managed to contain the damage, and Round One seems to be ending with a slight point advantage going to the administration.