Showdown might be inevitable

On the surface, the government's real goal in making the announcement was to boost confidence among the public by showing it is well prepared to cope with the rally.

But in reality, the government cannot deny it is on the defensive, albeit taking pre-emptive measures. It appears to be aware that whoever resorts to violence first is likely to lose the battle for political support.

A red-shirted protest leader, who asked not to be named, admitted the rally today may lead to severe confrontation and loss of lives.

"Thaksin wants talks with concerned agencies because he can't let the situation go on like this," the leader said.

Intelligence sources assessed that in this situation whoever acted first is likely to be at a disadvantage.

"If someone wants to cause violence, we have to do something. What we are concerned about most is possible violence caused by a "third party," the source said.

The intelligence expected 40,000-50,000 protesters to join the rally. The protest would not be prolonged as the Songkran holidays are coming soon.

"We think the rally might end within the three days from Wednesday to Friday. They [protesters] have to go back to their hometowns," the source said.

He added that the situation might change minute-by-minute so they have to wait and see whether the protesters could successfully bring down the government by 7pm today, as they had announced.

The government has prepared to employ soft to strong measures. Negotiations will be used in the beginning. The police will be the main force to control the situation while the military will act as a reinforcement. The government will employ justice procedures before using force to handle the protesters in case there is any violence.

Government House, Ban Si Sao Thewes (home of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda), and other ministries will be priority places for a security beef-up.

Provincial governors have been instructed to block rural people from coming to Bangkok to join the rally.

Perhaps the soft tactics may not work as Abhisit's vehicle was attacked by red-shirted protesters, who pelted it with water bottles, in Pattaya yesterday.

The attack could be a warning sign for the government that the showdown today might be worse than expected.

piyanart@nationgroup.com