Back to the edge of disaster once again

As the country's immediate future is once again clouded by uncertainty, only one thing is clear: This is a time when all sides must exercise restraint to the fullest degree. All parties to the political conflict must avoid violence at the much-anticipated rally by fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's red-shirt supporters and anti-government protesters in Bangkok today.

If restraint is not shown, tragedy or other undesirable consequences will leave another indelible scar on Thai society, which is already suffering from deteriorating social division. We have been on the brink for too long, and fresh violence could easily tip the scales to disastrous effect.

Difference in opinion is normal in any democratic society. But this simple fact has become Thailand's biggest challenge. Historically, Thais have always been able to live peacefully and in harmony with people of different opinions or different political affiliations. If we are to rediscover that sense of harmony, at the core of a strong nationhood, it is imperative that we make it through peacefully what is expected to be the biggest gathering of the red shirts.

The rally this time is a cause for concern because certain institutions have been set up for stinging criticism by the red-shirted protesters. Thaksin has urge his supporters to rise up in protest and has heavily criticised Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda and other members of the Council, accusing them of political interference and masterminding the 2006 coup that ousted him.

Thaksin has said there could be a "revolution by the people", while other protest leaders have warned of the possibility of a "civil war". MPs from the opposition camp and the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) are mobilising supporters from the provinces with the hope of bringing several hundred thousand to Bangkok to topple Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government and discredit certain Privy Councillors.

On Monday night, Abhisit insisted that his government would not tolerate any attempt to incite riots or fighting between rival political groups. He said in a national address that the government would "take decisive action" in case of deliberate violence.

Abhisit said the government has not planned to declare a state of emergency to deal with the situation. He said the government would do its best to prevent violence and maintain law and order during the rally.

The pledge of tolerance comes, however, against a backdrop of increasing defiance. Nattawut Saikua, a leader of the red shirts, said that the aim of the protesters was to first topple the Abhisit government and then Privy Council President Prem. Judging from the stance on either side, a truce is nowhere in sight.

Some are calling for a mediator to save the day. But whoever that person might be, the widespread division now is unlikely to be resolved without the compassion, tolerance and understanding of Thais as a whole.

The leaders of the red shirts warn of civil war, which would be such a shame. After all, traditional civil wars tend to arise from such causes as religion or race or extreme human rights abuses. Thailand's problem is a pure power play, and ideology is only cited when it suits individuals' interests. We don't need to take a closer look to know what the ongoing political showdown is all about.

While trying to ensure a peaceful political environment, the government may have to reconsider its strategy to reach out to people with different political affiliations. It is impossible to reverse the court's verdicts over the corruption charges against Thaksin. But it is worth considering how to address the issue of political reform to respond to people with different political views. This may be one way to help rid us of the red- and yellow-shirt factions in our society.

All protesters - both red and yellow - say that they are making a stand for the sake of the country. But the best way to show love to the country is to avoid any action that may lead to tragic consequences. Violence will take Thailand down into the abyss. Regardless of who wins this political game, the country will be severely damaged if incidents are blown up out of all proportion.

On Monday, Prime Minister Abhisit called on the public to help in the effort to get past the ongoing political crisis. He said that if the country could weather this crisis, it would emerge stronger politically and economically.

What happens in the next few days will show if Thais have such a spirit. It will be another moment of truth that will have a bearing on the country's political course in the years to come.