Red shirts gaining momentum

What's next for Thai politics and how it will unfold?

Thaksin succeeded in raising the degree of enthusiasm among his red-shirted protesters with the aim of bringing in more protesters. From thousands staging a two- or three-night protest, Thaksin could turn it into tens of thousands and a permanent protest.

He has shown that wherever he is, he can do anything he wants. He has changed from phone-ins to VDO links to appear before the protesters giving an impromptu speech. With the "Thailand Needs Change" slogan behind him, Thaksin's nightly show is like a "Rendezvous with Thaksin" programme, in which he acts as the solo artist.

He has built up more alliances by urging the 111 banned Thai Rak Thai party executives, academics, and well-known speakers to join him on stage. Thaksin has also adopted the strategy of besieging the city from the rural areas.

In addition to Thaksin's magnetic power, the organisers' financial strength might be a key factor that has attracted heavy attendance at the protest venue.

Apart from upgrading the size of the protest from small to large, Thaksin has expanded the scope of his attacks to include privy councillors. He has publicly identified them among his political enemies.

With the stakes so high - they include his frozen Bt76 billion and many legal cases - Thaksin is cornered. He is fighting a do-or-die war. All he wants is "change", and as his slogan says "Thailand Needs Change".

However, Thaksin's recent attack against the privy councillors was questioned by society over the timing. In fact, the alleged information was not new. Why did Thaksin expose it just now? Is it about his pending legal cases? Will the timing benefit him, since the court will begin hearing his frozen-assets case in July? He might want to discredit the process of investigation into his affairs. Thaksin's demand that the Democrats dissolve the House, amend the Constitution, and stop pursuing all legal cases, can be viewed as serving his own personal interests - not the "democracy" he claims.

The protest could be prolonged as its leaders mobilise supporters in the provinces to join the demonstrations in Bangkok on April 8, for a "final battle" to defeat the government.

The ruling Democrat Party is now faced with a tough job, apart from its efforts to solve the economic crisis. The government has failed to properly handle the red-shirted protest since it first started, so Thaksin has successfully marshalled his supporters. The red-shirted protesters could yet emerge as powerful as the yellow-shirt demonstrators.

Perhaps the Democrats underestimated Thaksin's power, or tended to keep their distance from the problems, giving Thaksin more confidence. Finally, they may not avoid the bloodshed Thaksin is aiming for.

In Thai politics, it is unpredictable what will happen next. But one thing is for sure, reconciliation is absolutely unlikely in this situation.