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The rationale is that Asia, especially East and Southeast Asia, remains heavily dependent on exports to these three major economies, better known as the Group of Three (G-3).

For instance, this group is one of the key overseas markets for Thailand, whose exports account for more than 60 per cent of the country's GDP growth.

For the first quarter of this year, the Kingdom's overall exports have been forecast as flat or even facing contraction, and recovery is only seen likely in the fourth quarter at the earliest.

As a result, the country's GDP has been revised downwards since the start of 2009.

In the worst-case scenario, the predictions show economic contraction to be 2.8 to 4 per cent because domestic consumption or an increase in government spending will be insufficient to cover the losses on export earnings.

Other export-dependent Asian economies facing a bleak outlook are Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

Given that there is no bottom in sight for the current global economic downturn, GDP and export contraction are likely to be deeper and last longer than previously expected.

For the G-3 economies, the bank's study shows a further 0.4-per-cent cut in United States' real GDP growth for this year and 0.9 per cent for the next.

The research also forecasts a longer recession in Europe and a significant cut in near-term growth in Japan.

Based on these downgrades in GDP growth across emerging markets, the global picture is expected to be even darker than it was in the 1950s, especially in terms of PPP (purchasing power parity)-weighted global GDP.

If economies do recover next year, the recovery is expected to be less robust than historical trends.

Besides weak global growth, there are other factors affecting Asian economies, particularly financial flows and the impact of varying domestic value added to exports.

Based on historical real-GDP growth in Asia, versus the G-7 growth over the past twelve years, Taiwan appears to be more vulnerable than its export share in GDP would suggest, while Malaysia is less so, according to the study.

In terms of capital flow, gross foreign-exchange reserves across the region have stabilised recently, with those of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Philippines hitting new highs.

With a few exceptions, the region, as a whole, is in relatively good shape to withstand disruption in external capital flows.

As for Singapore and Hong Kong, where liquidity ratios are complicated by their status as international banking and financial centres, it is believed that both are still hardy.

Assuming that the current-account forecasts for this year covering Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines could be helped by an improvement in terms of trade, and Malaysia's current-account deterioration remains modest, leaving a sizeable surplus intact. The foreign-currency-reserve coverage ratios for all those four countries also look strong.

However, there are pressure points in the region. The most acute one is Sri Lanka, where rescheduling risk is rising, and there are growing depreciation pressures on its currency due to the lack of alternative funding sources to deal with the large short-term external outflows.

In addition, South Korea and Indonesia may not have enough insurance in the form of foreign-exchange reserves to mitigate potential drains, according to the study.