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Such flip-flops are understandable. Thaksin knows that he cannot make all the people believe he is a good and honourable man. His status now as a fugitive on the run from a jail term, persona non grata in many countries, makes his situation worse.

Lately he has made it known he will continue the fight to reclaim the premiership at any cost, come hell or high water. Alas, cynics view him somewhat differently, akin to the political living dead. His behaviour and words show clear signs of paranoia, especially when he hollered that he had been marked for death by enemies he refused to name. During his long years in hardball politics he has amassed formidable adversaries who have fearful potential in a game of termination.

What is his strategy for this last-ditch attempt to regain power? Thaksin told confidantes he could no longer trust outsiders, but only his siblings. Therefore, he has assigned his younger brother and three sisters to take charge of four regions for political activities. They will do anything, with the sole purpose of paving the way for him to retake the premiership.

This campaign will need a lot of money to mobilise red-shirted demonstrators for long rallies. Thaksin says he still has a big war chest and denies that his deposits in British banks have been frozen. "That was a lie. I never had a single baht in deposits in England," he said. That's true. He can only have deposits in UK pounds sterling, certainly not in baht.

Anyway, Thaksin admits he cannot trust anybody, even certain members of his former inner circle of underlings and lieutenants. The most heartbreaking betrayal was the defection of Newin Chidchob, a faction leader who has become a king-maker of sorts for the coalition led by the Democrat Party. It was his switch of sides that enabled Abhisit Vejjajiva to become prime minister.

Thaksin should understand that bought loyalty does not last long, especially for politicians who are fascinated by the dictum that there is no honour among thieves. His final and only trust in his siblings underscores the fact that he trusts nobody else - therefore, others working for him should not expect to be treated with respect. Loyalty works both ways; Thaksin should not expect to have in return what he cannot give.

From now on, Thaksin will find it harder to work from a secure base to achieve victory. His abrupt change of mind and refusal to meet his cronies in Hong Kong last week was not because he fears assassination, but rather because of possible ejection from the territory by Chinese authorities wary of Beijing's directives.

If Thaksin hisses new threats from any country, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya can instruct Thai consul generals or ambassadors to talk with the relevant authorities about such activities being harmful to Thailand. The world is no longer big enough for Thaksin to operate in or phone in to his cronies.

Nevertheless, opposition politicians under Thaksin's control can cause trouble for the Abhisit government. The next red-shirt political rally is scheduled for February 14 or the following day, and there is a plan to file a no-confidence motion against the government in March.

The erratic and paranoid movement on the part of Thaksin and his cronies shows they are panicked by Abhisit's performance in office, particularly his overseas confidence-building trips. He was able to impress Japanese political leaders and the press there, and that alone was cause for worry among the Thaksin crowd.

What Abhisit and his team should do now is to put up a fairly high guard and prevent erosion from within, while ensuring that coalition partners are kept away from the cookie jars. If the prime minister's upcoming trip to China represents another success, then he can look forward to stronger support from the electorate and the private sector. That could make Thaksin's vow for a battle royal with Abhisit look like just a war dance around a bonfire. The fugitive and his foot soldiers could end up becoming their own worst enemies.