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Looking around, the world will never be the same again. Profound geopolitical changes are taking place. The US is in decline, with emerging countries vying to show off their multi-polar power. An era of global instability lies ahead.

US President Barack Obama will not be able to revive the American empire. The US economic and financial bubbles have gone bust. The damage is beyond repair. Nobody dares to look at the real figures - in trillions and trillions. US interest rates are hovering above zero per cent. The Federal Reserve has injected massive liquidity into the system, yet the banks are still in deep water.

The crisis has hit Europe hard, with governments intervening frantically to prop up zombie-like banks. Spain's real-estate bubble has burst. But the European Central Bank is in no hurry to come to its rescue. Spain can't print its own money since it is using the euro. The strong euro is not helpful to the Spanish economy.

Britain's bank nationalisation policy is proceeding in earnest. The latest casualty is the Royal Bank of Scotland, which could post losses of US$41.3 billion (Bt1.44 trillion) in 2009. The British pound can afford to weaken to help cushion the economy.

Eastern European countries are also feeling the pinch since they depend on loans or investment from Western Europe, which is pulling back its money. Some are now seeking IMF bail-outs. The Russian rouble is taking a beating.

In Asia, Singapore, the region's financial centre, is facing a deepening crisis. It is swallowing the dear lesson of globalisation. Its economy is projected to dip by 5 per cent this year. Singapore relies mainly on electronics exports, services, financials and trading as its bread and butter. Its heavy exposure to global financial capitalism is taking its toll. China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are also reeling under the turmoil. Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries are next in line to suffer from the poisoned financial environment.

In 1997, Thailand faced a financial crisis while the world economy was in good health. In due time, it devalued its currency and relied on exports to pull the economy out of recession. But now the situation is in contrast. Thailand might be enjoying strong macro-economic conditions, with relatively clean balance sheets among banks and big corporates. But soon it will also feel the pressure, since its exports account for some 60 per cent of GDP.

Since the Thai economy might slide into negative growth, the Abhisit government has pumped public money into the economy to save jobs. The deficit spending will amount to more than 5 per cent of GDP. This slash-and-burn spending might work in the short term by creating temporary demand. But what's in store after the public money is used up?

It's time Thailand prepared for the worst-case scenario. If the recession drags on, what should it do to survive?

Thailand is in a better position than most other countries to survive because it has an agricultural base. This sector might account for only 10 per cent of the output of GDP, but it generates employment and income for more than 30 million Thais. Agriculture will keep the country afloat. Thai rice will come to Thailand's rescue at the worst time. We can produce more than we eat. We must be able to determine the rice prices.

Thailand will have to reduce its energy imports, which now account for almost 8 per cent of GDP, or Bt400-Bt500 billion. If this amount is saved, it will create more multiple effects for economic growth. Alternative energies should be top of the national policy priorities.

If we can pursue sufficiency economy, we will survive. All kinds of risks, particularly external shocks, must be put under control through prudence. If we can maintain our wealth, and share the wealth with the needy, then all Thais will survive. We have ample food to feed everybody. We have ample land to create homes for everybody.

We can only live sufficiently with our neighbours if we love them as they do us. Our strength lies in the monarchy, which holds the country together. Our spirit is Buddhism, which teaches compassion, perseverance and sacrifice. This care for each other will have to start from communities before it expands to the provinces and regions. Democracy can only start at the grass roots when underprivileged Thais have food on the table, can send their kids to school and have decent houses to live in. We have the resources to make all Thais happy. The only problem is proper management to distribute the wealth and opportunities.

The Abhisit government might have too many vested interests to look after. If that is the case, sufficiency economy and grass-roots democracy in the Thai style will never come into being. Thaksinomics is dead, along with its hollow promises and corruption. We probably need to look beyond the post-Abhisit government.