Amnesty issue will be a huge challenge for PM

The Abhisit Vejjajiva government is poised to include the amnesty issue among a number of political woes to be addressed by the soon-to-be-formed committee on political reform.

At this juncture, the debate on whether to grant amnesty is still on the back burner. But it is expected to pick up steam after the government has gained a firm footing to restore confidence. Since so many players are involved, it is not difficult to picture the difficulty in coming up with a solution to keep everyone happy.

The amnesty issue is very controversial and complicated and if mishandled, could hasten the government's exit.

Unlike his two predecessors, Prime Minister Abhisit has opted for a low-profile approach to tackle political woes.

The last two administrations trumpeted plans for charter rewrite, triggering suspicion of an ulterior motive to put the convicted politicians before the public. As a result, political bickering intensified last year and there was no headway made on reconciliation.

By choosing a different track, Abhisit has managed to avoid making his government a problem rather than a solution.

He will have about two months to frame how the amnesty debate should proceed. Once the Asean Summit has passed and the government's spending has started to trickle down to grass-roots people, the public spotlight will likely turn to fence-mending to achieve political normalcy.

For the first and least-complicated layer of amnesty considerations, the core issue revolves around the fate of barred party executives from Thai Rak Thai, People Power, Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya.

Thai Rak Thai was disbanded in May, 2007 and its 111 executives removed from the electoral process for five years. The dissolution of the other three parties happened in December and saw 109 party executives banned. A total of 220 bigwigs have been forced to observe political abstinence though they remain on the scene through proxies.

The Democrats have no personal or partisan stakes in the amnesty,hence they can wield credibility as an impartial party to expunge the five-year ban for party executives.

A vast number of barred executives have already switched allegiance from ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Powerful cliques under Newin Chidchob, Somsak Thepsuthin, Suchart Tancharoen, Suwat Liptapanlop, Suriya Jungrungreangkit, Sora-at Klinpratoom and Pairoj Suwanchawee have parted ways with the pro-Thaksin camp.

Their amnesty, if granted, would be unlikely to lead to the revival of the Thaksin regime. Furthermore, their punishment will have been served almost to completion by the time the amnesty came into effect.

A positive implication from the amnesty would be to allow all political forces to freely manifest at the next general election. The writers of the 2007 Constitution might have hoped for the infusion of young-blooded politicians following the removal of barred party executives. But this has not happened. The political landscape is being littered by puppets.

For the second and medium-complicated layer of amnesty, the government has to decide how to resolve litigation involving the red-shirt and the yellow-shirt crowds.

A myriad of cases are under police proceedings and a fraction of incidents have reached the prosecution stage. If fairness for both the rival camps is to be ensured without tampering with the judiciary, then a special act of Parliament might be needed to grant pardons similar to the one given to student activists and communist sympathisers in 1979.

For the third and most-complicated layer of amnesty, the prime minister will have to make a tough decision on the fate of Thaksin.

Without clear and decisive judgement on what to do with Thaksin, he will remain the political wild card and political woes involving him will keep on festering.

Although the ex-premier will benefit from the lifting of the five-year ban, his main goal is not to re-enter politics but to elude his two-year prison term and his legal wrangling. Understandably, he also wants to regain control of his family's Bt70 billion impounded wealth.

An uneasy calm on the political front is likely to prevail until Thaksin can figure out what Abhisit has in store for him.

Under precedents and relevant legal principles, it is not legally viable to grant a pardon before Thaksin comes around to concede to the judiciary power and serve his imprisonment.

To win forgiveness, Thaksin is obliged to return and face the legal consequences. The unanswered question is how Abhisit is going to convince him to do just that.