Understanding is the key to solutions in the South

Deep South Watch (DSW), a network of academics and intellectuals who monitor conflict developments in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, released comprehensive statistics over the weekend concerning the violence over the past five years since an arms heist in January 2004. DSW researcher, Assistant Professor Srisomphob Jitrphiromsri, said that 8,541 violent incidents in this period had caused 3,287 deaths and 5,409 injuries.

It is interesting to note that most of those killed were Thai-Muslims, at 1,788 persons, against 1,384 Thai Buddhists. The trend is reversed for injured persons, at 3,224 Thai-Buddhists versus 1,633 Thai-Muslims.

The number of violent incidents last year was low, at 718 - over 50 per cent down from the 2007 figure of 1,861. The number of violent incidents peaked at 2,297 in 2005 and fell to 1,850 in 2006. These statistics show a correlation between the level of violence and the capacity of governments and the security forces to deal with the southern insurgency.

Although the number of incidents was smaller, the intensity of violence has increased, which demonstrates the growing sophistication of insurgents in using remote-controlled bombs and mines of various types.

The latest tally of reduced incidents is attributed to the tight security grids established around key villages throughout the troubled South over the past eighteen months under General Anupong Paochina.

From the total number of violent incidents and the Bt109 billion security budget from 2004-2008 for the South, the scholar revealed that it cost approximately Bt88 million to end one violent incident.

If this trend continues unabated, Srisomphob warned, it will cost the Thai taxpayer a lot of money.

"It would cost the government up to Bt300 billion over the next five to ten years to end the violence if this pattern persists," he said. Several scholars cautioned about the figure, saying that it did not include infrastructure and non-security related expenses.

So there must be better ways to end the violence, which has, over the years, destroyed the fabric of Thai society in the South, displaced local communities both Muslim and Buddhist, and raised the issue of cessation of the three provinces.

For the first time, it was disclosed that around 70,000 of 300,000 Thai-Buddhists have moved from the conflict zone. The Muslim-dominated three provinces have a population of 1.8 million people.

"In that sense, the insurgents have succeeded in embedding a climate of fear in those provinces," said Prasit Methsuwan, advisor to the Federation of Teachers from the Southern Border.

Various options were brought up at a brainstorming session in Hat Yai on Sunday organised by DSW and the Southern Journalists Association.

One way to find a solution is to think outside the box and view the situation in the three provinces in a social context instead of in a security context alone, as is the case now.

General Vaipoj Srinuan, deputy permanent secretary for defence affairs, was sanguine in pointing out that the Thai security apparatus still has a fixed mindset which was developed during the Cold War, and which accorded top priority to national security. The general argued that if the security policy-makers would pay more attention to human security and social conditions, with national security as just one component, this could open more space for alternative peace plans. In short, he advocated the use of political means over the military means that are currently in practice.

His view reflects the same policy advocacy of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. During his weekend visit to the South, Abhisit met privately with the DSW scholars and stressed to them that political measures to tackle the southern quagmire will reign supreme under his administration. The Democrat-led government has long enjoyed strong support from southern constituencies, so expectations are naturally high that it will do better than previous governments.

The government is facing an uphill task and will have to walk a delicate line. How can it balance the need for the use of force with pacifist measures? The military has been quite successful in tackling the security issues by putting more troops on the ground in the South. Srisomphob pointed out that nearly half the estimated 220,000 Thai Army personnel are now stationed in the South, not to mention over 10,00 police officers.

For the Abhisit government to "de-securitise" the South, the prime minister needs to come up with a holistic approach that does not compromise security concerns and the need to protect civilian lives. In the immediate future, he must bring to justice those who have been responsible for alleged torture and extra-judicial killings. It will require political will and determination.

He must also resist any move to overturn the official policy of allowing the Thai-Muslim community to use the Malay language, and he must ensure the means through which they protect and promote their traditions and cultural identity. Thai conservatives and some members of the Thai elite have the mistaken view that a strong Malay identity will diminish the sense of belonging to Thailand.

At the end of the day, the overall confidence in identity and language will enhance integration into the larger Thai society. Previous governments did not understand this.

For the medium and long terms, the report of the National Reconciliation Committee released in 2005 should serve as a useful tool kit.