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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

The reacl challenge for abhisit will be to walk the talk

SINCE HE TOOK up the helm three weeks ago, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has talked the talk to both Thais and foreign communities. He has done very well in assuring them his government would be different for good and for all purposes. He has repeatedly stressed he would respect the rule of law, restore social justice, keep the economy going and unite the divisive society. In a nutshell, he envisions Thailand as a better country with a respectable and honest government.



Now the hardest bit, he has to walk the walk. Leading the country at very difficult times, he is confronted with two insurmountable factors - all have to deal with expectations. First of all, the Thais, who are used to quick fixes, want social and economic remedies instantly that would put their lives and their country back on track - fast and running again. Equally important is Abhisit's own expectation. Judging from his several interviews and policy speeches, he has set extremely high benchmarks for himself. From the tone, body language and all, he is confident he can deliver on his promises for change.

In the next few weeks, if not days, when the realities sink in, these two different sources of expectation could be on a course for collision. The big question mark is: can he avoid being sucked into the so-called great expectation black hole?

As a trained economist, he knows exactly what he needs to do to stop the economic decline - put the money into the people's hands. The first batch of the Bt115 billion package for the first two quarters is ready. The opposition parties poked fun at him and belittled it as a copycat of Thaksin Shinawatra's populist policies. Abhisit was quick to counter that the economic downturn necessitates such extensive stimulus packages, which have now become omnipresent throughout the world. Nobody wants to see consumers losing confidence and stop spending.

Soon the people will find out for themselves whether political royalty exists in Thai politics - something we often witnessed in the colour of their T-shirts. Either way — political loyalty or stimulus package — the voters, who decide the fate of the future government, would benefit. Whichever leaders or parties are more responsive to their needs on the ground, as well as meet their pockets, would certainly win and win big. Mass politics is here to stay.

For the first time in more than three decades, a young Thai leader has emerged who has the potential to become a regional leader. At the moment, it sounds a bit pompous to venture beyond Thailand. But the truth is that Abhisit is fresh, intelligent and has the right mix.

Immediately after Thaksin took over the premiership in early 2001, he was hailed as a leader with an exceptional vision who could lead Thailand into the 21st century and turn the country into 16 Singapore (s), referring to a developed country status. But his greed, dishonesty and abusive use of power destroyed him prematurely.

Unlike previous Thai premiers such as General Surayud Chulanont, Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, Abhisit has an international image and appeal which people near and far can identify with. For the Thais, he has been called ObaMark, which played on his nickname, and elsewhere, he was referred to as the Obama of Asia. With such expectations, in weeks, if not days, issues related to a culture of impunity, violation of human rights and freedom of expression, which he has inherited, would be his biggest challenges.

Beyond his rich verbal commitments to the rule of law and social justice, he has to translate them into actions. He needs to throw the wrongdoers in jail, especially those culprits behind the disappearances of Somchai Neeraphaijit and some 100 other cases including the torture killing of Imam Yapa Kaseng, not to mention at least three dozen lesser known victims. Without quick and proper closure on these highly sensitive issues, Abhisit would not be able to win the hearts and minds of the Thai-Muslims.

Over the weekend, during his visit to the troubled South, he minced no words, saying that from now on the government would take the lead in dealing with the violence using political means, instead of letting the military do the job alone. He was determined not to commit the same faux pas.

Extrajudicial killings were Thaksin's biggest abattoirs, even though his actions were popular at home. General Surayud began his premiership with an apology to the Muslim community hoping it would end the southern violence. But he failed miserably to follow through with tangible actions - it was a great opportunity lost. Will such discrepancies between the stated policies and actions on the ground haunt the Abhisit-led administration again? How will Abhisit balance external and internal demands for social justice in ways that will not tarnish his unblemished image and principles?

Later this month, Abhisit will have the biggest exposure of his life at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He will be with a familiar crowd, which a decade ago chose him as one of the world's young leaders destined for greatness. This august gathering of world elite, including movers and shakers from all over the globe will listen attentively to what Abhisit has to say. He must use this opportunity to convince the WEF audience he is for real and for the long haul, not a male version of Barbie Doll.

Besides focusing on Thailand's potential and restoring the confidence of foreign investors, he is speaking on behalf of Asean and "G77 and China" which must create sustainable development strategies in dealing with financial crisis. He must emphasise Thailand's moderate success in meeting the Millennium Development Goals, especially in poverty reduction and alleviation.

That would give him a much-needed boost before he chairs the 14th Asean summit four weeks later in Hua Hin. As the youngest leader in Asean, he has to be modest and show humility as well as the diplomatic finesse the grouping's elders would find respectable and non-intrusive. The Asean leaders are not used to having a 40-something leader in their midst. Abhisit will certainly be baptised by fire. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, the region's longest reigning leader, would serve as a regional yardstick. The Cambodian leader will speak his mind, assessing the host's ability and capacity, as he has done frequently since the scheduled summit was postponed in December.

Finally, one caveat is in order. Abhisit must avoid the "emperor without clothes" syndrome. One can see his ever-expanding entourages wherever he goes. He has around 30 advisers to help him on the gamut of governing Thailand. The old saying that too many cooks spoil the broth could be applied here. Abhisit has stressed often that he would prove all political pundits and critics wrong - that he could not do what he had in mind or be impartial in restoring the confidence of the Thai justice system. Most crucial now, he must prove he is the exception to the rule.


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