
It has been a very bad week for the Pheu Thai Party. The Bangkok governor and by-election blows were swiftly followed by the emergence of a third political force that threatens to exacerbate the opposition party's misfortunes. Of course, the Bhum Jai Thai Party, a new magnet attracting influential local politicians and power brokers from left and right, will also worry the ruling Democrats, but the threat is more immediate for the opposition camp.
Pheu Thai senior members have admitted privately that they are fighting a rearguard action. One of them compared the party's situation to that of a temple that was run by monks, who were replaced by novices, then replaced in turn by mere temple boys.
Thaksin Shinawatra's once omnipresent political organisation has been rocked really hard by two party dissolution verdicts and political bans imposed on its senior members.
From an institution with strong connections stretching across the country's borders, it is left with limited financial means and a reluctant leader who wants out.
Things have changed so quickly. Pheu Thai's agenda, in a matter of weeks, has gone from retaining state power to regaining it, and now, to simply trying to move on - amid talks of more defections.
A censure offensive will be launched in two weeks on schedule, but, unless the party has an ace up its sleeve that the media don't know about, the showdown will likely be a mismatch.
Since this government is new with few, if any, administrative scars as yet, Pheu Thai will have to focus its attack on "legitimacy", an issue requiring a mixture of parliamentary expertise and legal eloquence, something the "temple boys" may not be best known for.
The Pheu Thai mechanism has recently set up DTV, a satellite TV station aimed at carrying on with the message from the "Truth Today" show that was doomed because of its association with Thaksin.
DTV's founders, while denying links with the ousted leader, have made no secret about their wish to have it function as a political vehicle similar to the anti-Thaksin ASTV.
On the surface, it's a good idea to have a TV station that can enhance civil society's role in political checks and balances. There are similar TV stations elsewhere even in the most advanced democracies, and DTV can do a great public service in monitoring the government, military, judiciary, legislature as well as all constitutional bodies.
As long as it can do that without the shadow of Thaksin, that is. Which brings us to the most crucial point: Pheu Thai is at the point where it must decide whether to keep on trying to fight for one man, for better or worse, or shake him off and reinvent itself.
It's a cruel dilemma but the decision has to be made all the same. Thaksin had dominated the People Power Party's agenda and its obsession with helping him doomed it. Pheu Thai, in an even weaker state than the PPP and just a very pale shadow of the original Thai Rak Thai when it comes to political strength, is simply not equipped to bear his flag and let all the enemies know where to shoot.
As things look at the moment, however, it's more likely that Pheu Thai will have even thicker Thaksin blood, albeit with fewer means. DTV will be dominated by the same old faces who were willing to die for him, with the interesting addition of popular monk Phra Phayom Kallayano, who will be given some airtime.
Pheu Thai may have made its decision after all. It may have already resolved to do what the PPP did, to its own detriment, but understandably this new Thaksin vehicle will adopt a more cautious and patient approach, as underlined by the setting up of DTV.
To cut loose from Thaksin is easier said than done, obviously. The main source of funding is still him. The money is coming through his siblings who are now the ones pulling the strings, and the other powerful camp in the party, the so-called "October" group that is driving Pheu Thai forward ideologically, is also close to the ousted leader.
Despite the distance between the "temple boys" and Thaksin Shinawatra, Pheu Thai remains pretty much the political fugitive's political party, and it's likely to keep on fighting tooth and nail for the real master come what may.