The more things change

But while some see the development as the "de-Thaksinisation" of Thai politics, it's deja vu all over again for others.

Bipolar politics over the past eight years was so acrimonious and turbulent that we forgot Thai politics had always been influenced by a "third party". Interestingly, it was always the Democrats against a main rival (namely Chat Thai and New Aspiration Party) with a sizeable third force (the likes of Palang Dharma and Social Action) dictating who ran the government. We may be simply going back to the old days.

But this latest "alternative party" harbours an ambition higher than a couple of key ministries and a fraction of the state budget after the next election. The veterans who showed up at the launch, along with those mentioned as possible connections, formed a formidable group with an unmistakable message: Democrats beware.

The opposition Pheu Thai Party must have been the one more worried now, though, as the party has to rely mainly on Chalerm Yoobamrung and de facto leader Yongyuth Wichaidit is the least-heard-of name nowadays. Bhum Jai Thai boasts a gathering of notorious albeit effective power brokers and seekers with far-reaching ties and influences.

Bhum Jai Thai may constitute political reformers' nightmares come true, but it radiates a raw force with a real focus. Pheu Thai, on the other hand, has become an odd mixture of Thaksin loyalists fighting to keep, or retrieve, vested interests, and those with contentious ideology. While the conditions have been right for Bhum Jai Thai to flourish, Pheu Thai will struggle to hold off a looming decline.

But don't discount the possibility of a Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai linkup. The latter party was formed exactly for us to keep that scenario in view - so it can have good leverage against the Democrats.

The ruling party, meanwhile, will enjoy a breathing space, as several figures pulling the Bhum Jai Thai strings remain officially shackled by political bans. But the Democrats only have to look back and check out their unexpected rise to power to see what those "banned" politicians can do.

Keep a friend close, but an enemy closer. The Democrats have done that, whether Bhum Jai Thai is a real pal or a foe in disguise. The real question is, Now what?