Bleak outlook for mobile industry

The bleak economic outlook has prompted one analyst at a foreign brokerage to revise the forecast for industrywide revenue growth this year (excluding interconnection revenue) to minus 1.4 per cent from last year, to Bt160.47 billion. Earlier, the same analyst estimated industrywide revenue growth of 3.4 per cent to Bt169.51 billion.

The analyst also lowered its forecast for last year's industry revenue from Bt163.9 billion to Bt162.75 billion. In 2007, the industry posted combined revenue of Bt156.51 billion, up 1.7 per cent from 2006.

Earlier this month, Advanced Info Service (AIS) predicted revenue in the cellular-service industry would reach a combined Bt165 billion this year.

AIS executive vice president Somchai Lertsutiwong said AIS is still optimistic about the business growth, despite slowing economy.

The same analyst said the industry would see mild price competition this year as cellular operators struggled to boost voice revenue.

Due to the looming price competition and the economic slowdown, the analyst forecast industrywide cellular-service voice revenue would drop 2.51 per cent to Bt117.57 billion, from an estimated Bt120.6 billion last year.

The industry's non-voice revenue is expected to register low annual growth of 8.4 per cent to Bt22.44 billion this year, against an estimated 27 per cent to Bt20.7 billion last year.

But the analyst remains confident the cellular-service industry will be relatively little affected by the economic downturn, given that it is a basic and necessary service.

One telecom industrialist said the industry's revenue was unlikely to grow this year, due to the economic problems and market saturation.

The industry's international roaming call service is expected to drop, in line with the global economic turmoil and the effects of the airport seizures last year in Bangkok by anti-government protesters.

AIS has more than 26.8 million subscribers, Total Access Communication than 18 million, True Move more than 12 million and Hutchison-CAT Wireless Multimedia more than 1 million.